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One could also read this as: Within the year, of the 650,000 first offenders, there is only a 6.8% recitivism rate. Further, 99.99% of those initial offenders

• morsch 15y ago
  You're assuming their methods of detecting copyvios are effective. I very much doubt they are, or they would have send out far more than 650k first warnings. It's ludicrous to assume only about 1 to 2% of the ~52 million French internet users pirate stuff. Having a bad detection rate will automatically result in a low rate of recidivism, simply because you're not likely to catch the same guy twice (unless you watch him more closely). We have pretty much no idea how many of the initial offenders have halted their behavior. Having a bad detection rate also makes it very easy to "go underground", ie. purposely avoid detection. E.g. using Rapidshare instead of Bittorrent (or the other way around, I have no idea) hardly seems very underground to me. But yeah: Installing an infrastructure to monitor your citizens internet use and sending out letters from the government, culminating in killing access to one of the primary infrastructures of the modern world is bound to be a pretty damn good deterrent. I'm sure they'll try to make plentiful use of it in the years to come. Maybe inciting dissent (aka "public unrest", "rioting and looting") will soon come with an internet ban.