- "if you want to make a neutral prior for how long a technology will be around you should basically just look at how long it has already existed" AKA Lindy's

- "if you want to make a neutral prior for how long a technology will be around you should basically just look at how long it has already existed" AKA Lindy's effect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect