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>I don't see a good way around that possibility that doesn't risk a huge escalation. Actually I may see one very imperfect option: Cede Crimea and maybe other c
by TMWNN 5y ago
>I don't see a good way around that possibility that doesn't risk a huge escalation. Actually I may see one very imperfect option: Cede Crimea and maybe other concessions to Russia in exchange for and agreement of neutrality backed by allowing a very large build up if Ukrainian military power, and a guarantee of support from the West, to significantly deter Russia from doing this again.
Yes, I've thought from the start that this is the likely best case for Ukraine; acknowledging de jure the de facto loss of Crimea and Donbass since 2014, in exchange for
* an end to the war
* Austrian-style neutrality
* specific US/UK/other Western powers' guarantee (not NATO) of territorial integrity for rump Ukraine if Russia attacks it again
This would give Putin a way out by giving him a "win" for the domestic audience, cause no/minimal loss of additional territory for Ukraine, and give it as much security as it can hope for (since NATO membership isn't happening).
Maybe I'm wrong, the incessant reports of poor Russian morale and logistics really are completely true as opposed to having been massively spun by Ukraine's PR department, and we really will see that (as claimed just today by Ukraine) Russian troops will run out of supplies in three days. But I wouldn't bet money on it.