3 ms·

Putin seems to believe that the 'eventual' admittance of Ukraine into NATO and potentially the EU and the placement of troops / missiles there was going to lead

Putin seems to believe that the 'eventual' admittance of Ukraine into NATO and potentially the EU and the placement of troops / missiles there was going to lead to the end of the Russian state as he knows it (not so much by NATO conquest but by a willingness on a future Russia's part to join the EU). So while yes by our metrics Russia is in worse shape, these are not necessarily Putin's metrics. Putin wants to neutralize Ukraine, and he's likely done that. He wanted to turn Russia inward and away from the West, and he's definitely done that. He wants to ensure the Russian state continues into the long term without free borders or economic entanglements and he has absolutely accomplished that. I know it makes us feel better to say 'Oh, that foolish Putin, such an idiot' but he simply may not feel that way. He may be meeting his objectives, as he sees them.

signatoremo 5y ago
Ukraine won’t be neutralized, or occupied for a long run, simply because Russia can’t ignore the enormous cost of doing so, regardless of what Putin wants. We’ve seen the willingness of Ukrainians to fight for their country and the amount of support they receive from the West. At some point the cost will be too much that would risk destabilizing Russia.
eitland 5y ago
> Putin seems to believe that the 'eventual' admittance of Ukraine into NATO and potentially the EU and the placement of troops / missiles there Putin knew very well about the "uncontested borders" rule for new Nato countries, and he knew about all the problems in east Ukraine. He has also been talking about "nazis" in Ukraine for months. It was all just a show.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > Putin knew very well about the "uncontested borders" rule for new Nato countries It's not a rule, it's just an excuse certain members (NATO operates on consensus, not majoritarianism) have been citing for not moving Georgia and Ukraine from “we expect them to become members at some point” to “here’s a formal Membership Action Plan”, but which hasn't been historically applied to prospective NATO members (who have been admitted with border disputes, including border disputes with other NATO countries, e.g., Spain with the UK) and which could be dropped as an objection to those two at any time with no formal change to NATO rules.

signatoremo 5y ago

Ukraine won’t be neutralized, or occupied for a long run, simply because Russia can’t ignore the enormous cost of doing so, regardless of what Putin wants. We’ve seen the willingness of Ukrainians to fight for their country and the amount of support they receive from the West. At some point the cost will be too much that would risk destabilizing Russia.

eitland 5y ago

> Putin seems to believe that the 'eventual' admittance of Ukraine into NATO and potentially the EU and the placement of troops / missiles there Putin knew very well about the "uncontested borders" rule for new Nato countries, and he knew about all the problems in east Ukraine. He has also been talking about "nazis" in Ukraine for months. It was all just a show.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> Putin knew very well about the "uncontested borders" rule for new Nato countries It's not a rule, it's just an excuse certain members (NATO operates on consensus, not majoritarianism) have been citing for not moving Georgia and Ukraine from “we expect them to become members at some point” to “here’s a formal Membership Action Plan”, but which hasn't been historically applied to prospective NATO members (who have been admitted with border disputes, including border disputes with other NATO countries, e.g., Spain with the UK) and which could be dropped as an objection to those two at any time with no formal change to NATO rules.