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These articles are silly. If the Russians gain 100% territorial control of Ukraine, they will install a puppet government made up of people powerful enough inte

These articles are silly. If the Russians gain 100% territorial control of Ukraine, they will install a puppet government made up of people powerful enough internally to manage any internal dissent. Outcome: Russia wins. Even if they only do this for Eastern Ukraine ending up with a split Kyiv and a heavily-fortified Dniper, Russia still wins. If Russia manages to create (has already happened), hold and fortify a land bridge from the Donbass down to Crimea, Russia wins. Putin will hold victory parades. Mission accomplished. If Side A fights Side B and takes and holds Side B's territory, Side A has won, by definition. We can talk about how much it cost Side A and how difficult it will be for Side A to keep hold of that territory, and perhaps like the US in Afghanistan Russia will eventually be forced to withdraw and lose that territory. But perhaps not. It's reading tea leaves at this point and anyone claiming to know the outcome is peddling propaganda.

hackbinary 5y ago
Obviously, you are not very familiar Ukraine, Ukrainian people, or Ukrainian history. I'm guessing you were not present in 1991 when Ukraine declared itself independent. I am guessing you are oblivious to the very significant Russian casualty figures that are putting this as high as 50,000: 10,000 dead and 40,000 injured. Ukraine will not cede any land, and is getting significant war material and support from the west. Putin, quite clearly, is a modern Kaiser Wilhelm II. And I have every suspicion that he was egged on Xi because for China there is no downside. China will basically take control of Eastern Russia over the next 50 years and Russia will be China's vassle state in Europe. Think of it this way. Russia is like IBM, and their war is like OS/2. China gave Putin tacit permission and support, but China actually has its own objectives which are served by the success or failure. And probably failure even more so.
- HstryrsrBttn 5y ago
cmurf 5y ago
This is nonsense. 190,000 troops cannot hold a non-compliant population of 42 million. Strategically Russia has completely lost any ability to achieve their goals. All they can do now is punish the civilian population, and that is what they are doing. They could very well flatten the entire country, but they still will have lost the war, and failed to achieve any of their goals. They have lost all the diplomatic and economic gains they've made since the USSR fell. Who will shake Putin's hand first? That is what's meant by they have lost. Considering the illegality of the invasion, is central to the U.N. Charter to which most countries are a signatory. Therefore the world isn't going to accept anything like a win for Russia no matter what now. 141 countries, rather overwhelming, voted for United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1 declaring the invasion an act of aggression inconsistent with the Charter, condemned Russia's declaration of “special military operation” in Ukraine (because threats are also inconsistent with the charter), endorsed the view of the Secretary-General that this invasion is a repudiation of the principles that every country has committed to uphold and that the present military offensive of the Russian Federation is against the Charter. 141 countries demanded Russia withdraw from all of Ukraine, further demanding that Russia immediately and unconditionally reverse their claim to Donetsk and Luhansk. And deplored the involvement of Belarus in helping Russia stage this attack. Russia killed millions of ethnic Ukrainians in the holodomor, 1932-1933. And now this. Aside from the gross immorality on the face of it - Russia has violated treaties it's a party to. It's own word, its trustworthiness, it's ability to make a promise? It's worth less than spit. It's the worst possible violation of the U.N. Charter, and they are a founding member of it. It's a literal shredding of the Budapest memorandum. And the Geneva Conventions are also MIA. So you can pretty much expect Russia only considered contracts as an expediency. They're not binding at all on them. This also seriously risks the unwinding of the U.N as an institution, in particular if China and India are just going to continue to sit on the sidelines with thumbs up their asses. If you do not care enough to say an obviously wrong thing is wrong, and play neutral? Well then, the Charter is rendered increasingly meaningless. And if that is true, then the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty is probably next. The terrible long term outcome of this ill conceived invasion, may be long term nuclear proliferation. Because nukes seems to be a more effective deterrent than the U.N or N.P.T. I don't see humanity refraining from using nukes for all time if nuclear proliferation takes off again. So the distillation of this war is that humanity might be doomed to engage in a 3rd world war no matter what. Avoiding that is why there's so many mental gymnastics going on right now, and stumbling like the planes from Poland thing.

hackbinary 5y ago

Obviously, you are not very familiar Ukraine, Ukrainian people, or Ukrainian history. I'm guessing you were not present in 1991 when Ukraine declared itself independent. I am guessing you are oblivious to the very significant Russian casualty figures that are putting this as high as 50,000: 10,000 dead and 40,000 injured. Ukraine will not cede any land, and is getting significant war material and support from the west. Putin, quite clearly, is a modern Kaiser Wilhelm II. And I have every suspicion that he was egged on Xi because for China there is no downside. China will basically take control of Eastern Russia over the next 50 years and Russia will be China's vassle state in Europe. Think of it this way. Russia is like IBM, and their war is like OS/2. China gave Putin tacit permission and support, but China actually has its own objectives which are served by the success or failure. And probably failure even more so.

HstryrsrBttn 5y ago

cmurf 5y ago

This is nonsense. 190,000 troops cannot hold a non-compliant population of 42 million. Strategically Russia has completely lost any ability to achieve their goals. All they can do now is punish the civilian population, and that is what they are doing. They could very well flatten the entire country, but they still will have lost the war, and failed to achieve any of their goals. They have lost all the diplomatic and economic gains they've made since the USSR fell. Who will shake Putin's hand first? That is what's meant by they have lost. Considering the illegality of the invasion, is central to the U.N. Charter to which most countries are a signatory. Therefore the world isn't going to accept anything like a win for Russia no matter what now. 141 countries, rather overwhelming, voted for United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1 declaring the invasion an act of aggression inconsistent with the Charter, condemned Russia's declaration of “special military operation” in Ukraine (because threats are also inconsistent with the charter), endorsed the view of the Secretary-General that this invasion is a repudiation of the principles that every country has committed to uphold and that the present military offensive of the Russian Federation is against the Charter. 141 countries demanded Russia withdraw from all of Ukraine, further demanding that Russia immediately and unconditionally reverse their claim to Donetsk and Luhansk. And deplored the involvement of Belarus in helping Russia stage this attack. Russia killed millions of ethnic Ukrainians in the holodomor, 1932-1933. And now this. Aside from the gross immorality on the face of it - Russia has violated treaties it's a party to. It's own word, its trustworthiness, it's ability to make a promise? It's worth less than spit. It's the worst possible violation of the U.N. Charter, and they are a founding member of it. It's a literal shredding of the Budapest memorandum. And the Geneva Conventions are also MIA. So you can pretty much expect Russia only considered contracts as an expediency. They're not binding at all on them. This also seriously risks the unwinding of the U.N as an institution, in particular if China and India are just going to continue to sit on the sidelines with thumbs up their asses. If you do not care enough to say an obviously wrong thing is wrong, and play neutral? Well then, the Charter is rendered increasingly meaningless. And if that is true, then the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty is probably next. The terrible long term outcome of this ill conceived invasion, may be long term nuclear proliferation. Because nukes seems to be a more effective deterrent than the U.N or N.P.T. I don't see humanity refraining from using nukes for all time if nuclear proliferation takes off again. So the distillation of this war is that humanity might be doomed to engage in a 3rd world war no matter what. Avoiding that is why there's so many mental gymnastics going on right now, and stumbling like the planes from Poland thing.