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I see China expanding its territorial influence North following this. Maybe 30 or 50 years, longer view. A weakened and destabilized Russia will provide it much
by quantified 5y ago
I see China expanding its territorial influence North following this. Maybe 30 or 50 years, longer view. A weakened and destabilized Russia will provide it much opportunity. And the Russian government will have deserved it. (Can’t say the same for the population, they seem largely carried along for the ride.)
- empressplay 5y agoA formal alliance is far more likely (it's basically already happening), this would mitigate the need at risking any conflict, by giving China access to that territory in exchange for economic support for Russia. And before you suggest they won't do that 'because sanctions', sanctions against China would hurt the West far more than they would hurt China, and they know it. I'd be more concerned about Malaysia, Indonesia and so on. The dragon is far more likely to march south. And it will have a nuclear bear along for the ride.
- quantified 5y agoOh, I agree with you. Influence isn’t necessarily hostile. Russia will need China more, and China will be happy to help. Maybe not on the same crippling-predatory-loan basis that they pursue in African country. Climate change suggests value in places more northerly and a little further from the coast. If you’re a billion people relatively densely arranged, wide open space next door looks awful nice.