3 ms·

What's interesting to me is, anecdotally, there should be a mini-baby-boom based around the start of COVID lockdowns. At least local to me (DC metro), just abo

What's interesting to me is, anecdotally, there should be a mini-baby-boom based around the start of COVID lockdowns. At least local to me (DC metro), just about every young couple in my neighborhood had a baby sometime between early 2021 and early 2022.

mdorazio 5y ago
I thought the same thing initially, but it turns out it’s a local effect probably tied to the yuppie demographic I live in. More broadly, there was a baby bust: https://www.brookings.edu/research/early-evidence-of-missing-births-from-the-covid-19-baby-bust/?amp https://www.brookings.edu/research/early-evidence-of-missing...
jeromegv 5y ago
Thank you for sharing your anecdote. However, the opposite happened. Likely that you are in the age where a lot of people get pregnant so this looked like a baby boom. In reality, birth went down in the western world. A study in Canada: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2021001/article/00041-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2021001/artic...
- ashtonkem 5y ago
  I think a “harvesting effect” happened. A large chunk of people who were already thinking of having a kid decided to move up their plans to coincide with lock down. This results in a blip in birth statistics for the given month, but not for the overall year.
musingsole 5y ago
You're expecting the same result from this complete system shutdown followed by tentative reworking as from a temporary system shutdown caused by a bad snowstorm or government shutdown. In reality, it seems the existential dread of the past couple years has suppressed birthrates whereas a temporary shutdown in the past similarly leaves couples with a lot of boredom but -- critically -- not concerned about the overall wellbeing of their world.
- alistairSH 5y ago
  Exactly. The couples who did have kids all had them timed to coincide with the very first weeks of lockdown, before we all knew this thing was going to last for years. And obviously not enough of them to offset decreased rates through the rest of the year. And likely just regional/economic - I'm in an upper-middle class neighborhood and most people were able to work remotely and avoid the worst of the economic uncertainty. Without the numbers, I would have said there was a snowstorm effect. With the numbers, there obviously wasn't.
jliptzin 5y ago
I’ve seen the opposite, the number of couples I’ve seen get divorced during COVID was astounding

mdorazio 5y ago

I thought the same thing initially, but it turns out it’s a local effect probably tied to the yuppie demographic I live in. More broadly, there was a baby bust: https://www.brookings.edu/research/early-evidence-of-missing-births-from-the-covid-19-baby-bust/?amp https://www.brookings.edu/research/early-evidence-of-missing...

jeromegv 5y ago

Thank you for sharing your anecdote. However, the opposite happened. Likely that you are in the age where a lot of people get pregnant so this looked like a baby boom. In reality, birth went down in the western world. A study in Canada: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2021001/article/00041-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2021001/artic...

ashtonkem 5y ago
I think a “harvesting effect” happened. A large chunk of people who were already thinking of having a kid decided to move up their plans to coincide with lock down. This results in a blip in birth statistics for the given month, but not for the overall year.

musingsole 5y ago

You're expecting the same result from this complete system shutdown followed by tentative reworking as from a temporary system shutdown caused by a bad snowstorm or government shutdown. In reality, it seems the existential dread of the past couple years has suppressed birthrates whereas a temporary shutdown in the past similarly leaves couples with a lot of boredom but -- critically -- not concerned about the overall wellbeing of their world.

alistairSH 5y ago
Exactly. The couples who did have kids all had them timed to coincide with the very first weeks of lockdown, before we all knew this thing was going to last for years. And obviously not enough of them to offset decreased rates through the rest of the year. And likely just regional/economic - I'm in an upper-middle class neighborhood and most people were able to work remotely and avoid the worst of the economic uncertainty. Without the numbers, I would have said there was a snowstorm effect. With the numbers, there obviously wasn't.

jliptzin 5y ago

I’ve seen the opposite, the number of couples I’ve seen get divorced during COVID was astounding