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There is not going to be a third world war or anything similarly catastrophic in the short timeframe, as far as I can see. But for a long time I have been predi

There is not going to be a third world war or anything similarly catastrophic in the short timeframe, as far as I can see. But for a long time I have been predicting that it will come within 20 - 40 years - if we don't do something. The currently renewed armsrace and polarization between various imperialist blocs that henceforth will ensue clearly points at a single catastrophic outcome. People have so far generally not proven willing to face this danger explicitly, it has been (perhaps understandably) barred by some sort of collective mental block which spills over into prepperism, dreams of New Zealand or other planets. But none of this will likely help when a nuclear war between two or more global alliances is unleashed. Perhaps now, when the nuclear nations are readying their warheads, people might finally realize the direty of the situation, this mental block might lift somewhat and we can start making plans for global peace instead of thinking of escape routes that lead nowhere or worse: "victory". But I have to tell you, it doesn't look good.

throwaway6532 5y ago
Well I live in New Zealand, so that's a start. However, it's honestly not much help. It is for everyday run of the mill disasters. We did fantastic in Covid. But my assumption is the full breakdown of globalization leading to a massive reduction in the complexity of our societies. Covid highlighted "hey global supply chains are pretty resilient but not as much as you thought they were" and Vladolph Putler's little excursion into Ukraine highlighted "there are many weak links in the global supply chain that if enough of them snap will result in a runaway feedback loop and you will be in a whole new world". I've spent hundreds of hours digging through https://oec.world/en/home-b https://oec.world/en/home-b and documentaries about various crisis sitauations in the world with respect to food, fuel, water shortages etc and sought out "doomsday" predictions from as far back as I could in order to backtest what people were saying 10 years ago etc. And yeah. It doesn't look good.

throwaway6532 5y ago

Well I live in New Zealand, so that's a start. However, it's honestly not much help. It is for everyday run of the mill disasters. We did fantastic in Covid. But my assumption is the full breakdown of globalization leading to a massive reduction in the complexity of our societies. Covid highlighted "hey global supply chains are pretty resilient but not as much as you thought they were" and Vladolph Putler's little excursion into Ukraine highlighted "there are many weak links in the global supply chain that if enough of them snap will result in a runaway feedback loop and you will be in a whole new world". I've spent hundreds of hours digging through https://oec.world/en/home-b https://oec.world/en/home-b and documentaries about various crisis sitauations in the world with respect to food, fuel, water shortages etc and sought out "doomsday" predictions from as far back as I could in order to backtest what people were saying 10 years ago etc. And yeah. It doesn't look good.