3 ms·

We stocked up to one month of supplies in January '20 due to pandemic fears. At the time we were concerned that we wouldn't want to go to a grocery store or tha

We stocked up to one month of supplies in January '20 due to pandemic fears. At the time we were concerned that we wouldn't want to go to a grocery store or that there would be a run on the markets. Our stores are currently at about 50% now. I intend to go up to 3 months of stores in the next couple weeks. My main concern is grain and fertilizer. I expect food price spikes and shortages. I don't expect shortages in the sense of starvation risk, more like - they won't have the brands or types of food we're used to. The stores are mainly protection for if goes worse than I expect. Regarding nuclear, I've looked at what installing a bomb shelter would cost, but it's a nonstarter with my wife. Instead, we've just decided on where we'll go and what we'll do if we get the warning on our phones. Luckily, I still think nuclear exchange is highly unlikely.

throwaway6532 5y ago
>I don't expect shortages in the sense of starvation risk, more like - they won't have the brands or types of food we're used to. The stores are mainly protection for if goes worse than I expect. That's probably true for where you and I live, but the higher prices for us is something we can afford, for others it's being priced out of the market. A certain amount of that may happen in our local communities or country, but there are places in the world that import a lot of food that will potentially face starvation on a bigger scale. My worry about that is bigger conflicts erupting either begins to disrupt shipping to the point where it spills over into hardships closer to home, and/or such disruptions break fundamental weak links in the global trade system i.e rubber supply from Thailand or phosphate rock supply from Morocco etc. I'm not worried about a nuclear exchange at all. I don't think there's much point even being worried about it. That's one that if it happens it happens and oh well. I don't think it's likely, but I did make a bet with my friends several weeks before Putin invaded that given there was no way he would be able to accomplish his strategic objectives otherwise that his only option to ensure a win was to commit mass atrocity to force capitulation of the Ukrainian people, and my bet specifically was that he would drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine in order to try and do that. I think where the conflict stands now is in the recent few days we've hit another shift in strategy / tone from Moscow that we've hit a point where things are about to get ugly.

throwaway6532 5y ago

>I don't expect shortages in the sense of starvation risk, more like - they won't have the brands or types of food we're used to. The stores are mainly protection for if goes worse than I expect. That's probably true for where you and I live, but the higher prices for us is something we can afford, for others it's being priced out of the market. A certain amount of that may happen in our local communities or country, but there are places in the world that import a lot of food that will potentially face starvation on a bigger scale. My worry about that is bigger conflicts erupting either begins to disrupt shipping to the point where it spills over into hardships closer to home, and/or such disruptions break fundamental weak links in the global trade system i.e rubber supply from Thailand or phosphate rock supply from Morocco etc. I'm not worried about a nuclear exchange at all. I don't think there's much point even being worried about it. That's one that if it happens it happens and oh well. I don't think it's likely, but I did make a bet with my friends several weeks before Putin invaded that given there was no way he would be able to accomplish his strategic objectives otherwise that his only option to ensure a win was to commit mass atrocity to force capitulation of the Ukrainian people, and my bet specifically was that he would drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine in order to try and do that. I think where the conflict stands now is in the recent few days we've hit another shift in strategy / tone from Moscow that we've hit a point where things are about to get ugly.