Doubt it. The Fed isn't going to act very quickly at all. This feels more like we're at around 2002/2003 right now (which had the stock market collapse in 200

Doubt it. The Fed isn't going to act very quickly at all. This feels more like we're at around 2002/2003 right now (which had the stock market collapse in 2000, the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and the Iraq War started in 2003) and the Fed was slowly increasing interest rates. We also had the pandemic and we've got massive supply shocks, and there's huge amounts of pent-up demand for everything, including workers. We're more likely to boom in the short term over the next 1-3 years than to bust. (I do think the bust-to-come will be miserable, but its 2+ years out). Most of you are also way too worried about what is clearly a negative supply shock causing an increase of prices, which will necessarily be volatile and transitory. The Russian war in Ukraine is clearly not sustainable long-term. They aren't going to be in there for the next 20 years. Putin will probably be removed from power one way or another and then relations with Russia will normalize and we'll start buying their oil so they can pay Ukraine reparations. Then commodity prices will start to fall again, just like they fell after the 2011 commodities peak. And really in 2003 we had gone through the dot-com collapse, the trauma of 9/11, invaded Afghanistan, invaded Iraq, nothing looked remotely sustainable, the Fed was raising interest rates, housing was going through the roof and was an obvious bubble (and we'd just been through the dot com bubble so the way that people were throwing loans at anyone with a pulse to buy up housing looked clearly insane if you were on the outside of it all). Gold bugs blogs online were talking about Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation, that everyone should buy gold (crypto these days) and that interest rates were going to soar to double digits. Everyone who was yelling about the Greenspan Fed printing money was convinced that a Kondratieff Winter wave was imminent. Well it didn't start rolling over until 2006 and it wasn't until 2008 that we really impacted with reality.