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The mistake has already been made. Markets crashing due to raising rates is due to the mistake made last year, and somewhat of an inevitable outcome. Similar t
by adam_arthur 5y ago
The mistake has already been made. Markets crashing due to raising rates is due to the mistake made last year, and somewhat of an inevitable outcome.
Similar to 2000s, Bernanke raised too fast, but the raising should have started years earlier to prevent the need to move so fast
Otherwise we may very well end up in the 70s part two. There is not a good way out at this point unless the fiscal drag really is sufficient enough to cool inflation on its own. Which is really looking doubtful at this point.
A creative way out would be for the Fed to partner with fiscal policy to enact a new tax scheme or similar which sucks some of the money out without requiring higher rates. But chance of that happening is pretty much 0. It looks like the aim for the BBB has barely changed, and will still be inflationary the way it's proposed.
And keep in mind, long rates are market driven. If the Fed slow walk the rate increases, the 10y will just go up faster and faster as expectations of future inflation continue to go higher. There is no way to stop the repricing of the 10y at this point, aside from inflation coming down or more aggressive fed action to prove they are serious