4 ms·

>> Trump foreign policy was returning America to what it should have been all along, Free Trade with all nations, entangling alliances with none > (emphasis mi

>> Trump foreign policy was returning America to what it should have been all along, Free Trade with all nations, entangling alliances with none > (emphasis mine) > Interestingly, this is exactly what the EU has been moving towards for the past few decades. Hence the attempt to not be economically dependent from the US. Hence the refusal to take part in the trade war against China. This fits with my original conclusion that the EU is hopelessly naive when it comes to global politics. Imagine someone with the bright idea to "diversify" so for the sake of diversity they sell half their energy imports to a dictatorship (this is actually what Germany did). It's quite obviously unwise, at least but they do it anyway because of that magic word "diversify". If I can compare it to my own profession it's like a DevOps guy coming up with the bright idea to go multi-cloud, a tarpit where engineering hours go to die and which most often makes the stack more brittle not less. Let's move on to Merkel and her magic stroke of genius to sell the EU on more of China, not less. Another bright mind walks in and declares, "with China on our side, we'll never have to worry about those bastards over in the US, protecting our ocean trade with their carrier fleets". Yet China is not a good partner, we know this already from their too-sensitive reproaches to such sovereign nations as Australia. Every time the EU gets bit. It's as if they don't realize that the foundations of autocracy are poison and any partnership, especially one that puts the junior at risk of coercion, is doomed. When will they ever learn? When will Germany, a land with personal experience in power-mad dictators learn that the price you pay for throwing your lot in with such company is paid for in blood?

Yoric 5y ago
You are right, obviously, but I suspect that you're underestimating the complexity of the situation. On one end of the spectrum, one may imagine Europe allying entirely with Putin's Russia (or with China, or with any other dictatorship). That's obviously bad. You can live like this for a very long time, but that way leads eventual subjugation, through violence or otherwise. That's the choice of countries that join the Silk Road. On the other end of the spectrum, one may imagine Europe letting the US take all the decisions and being entirely dependent on the US for many critical imports. In other words, becoming a dominion of the US. Certainly better than an invasion, but a far cry from independence. To illustrate, I have heard it said and repeated that the UK has stopped being independent. That any meaningful choice on British policy is actually taken in Washington. I have no clue whether that is actually true, but let us assume for a second that it is, or may be in the future. If that's the case, this means that voting for anything other than local elections is pointless. That the UK is in a limbo, not a democracy anymore, not really a police state, either. Again,let me emphasize: I do not claim that this represents reality. I only claim that this something that many countries around the globe fear when they talk about the US. And, let's be frank, many of these countries also fear it when they talk about European countries. So, if you're a democracy, in Europe or elsewhere, how do you remain independent? Obviously, you want to ally with a strong country (e.g. US) against known predators (e.g. Russia) and suspected predators (e.g. China, Turkey). But you also want to guard against too much dependence on your protector (Russia, China, but also the US and European countries, for instance, have been known to use and abuse leverage for political control). You also want to guard against election interference from the your protector (European countries have been doing this all over Africa, while CIA declassified documents confirm that CIA has been involved in election interference all over Europe since its founding – undoubtedly also true of KGB/FSB, but they don't declassify their documents). Of course, if you spend too much time looking over your shoulder at your allies because you don't trust them, you risk delivering yourself to your predator. Remaining independent is a complicated balancing act that most countries, not just Europe, play as well as they can. Germany's recent fumble shows how complicated but not that it's unnecessary.

Yoric 5y ago

You are right, obviously, but I suspect that you're underestimating the complexity of the situation. On one end of the spectrum, one may imagine Europe allying entirely with Putin's Russia (or with China, or with any other dictatorship). That's obviously bad. You can live like this for a very long time, but that way leads eventual subjugation, through violence or otherwise. That's the choice of countries that join the Silk Road. On the other end of the spectrum, one may imagine Europe letting the US take all the decisions and being entirely dependent on the US for many critical imports. In other words, becoming a dominion of the US. Certainly better than an invasion, but a far cry from independence. To illustrate, I have heard it said and repeated that the UK has stopped being independent. That any meaningful choice on British policy is actually taken in Washington. I have no clue whether that is actually true, but let us assume for a second that it is, or may be in the future. If that's the case, this means that voting for anything other than local elections is pointless. That the UK is in a limbo, not a democracy anymore, not really a police state, either. Again,let me emphasize: I do not claim that this represents reality. I only claim that this something that many countries around the globe fear when they talk about the US. And, let's be frank, many of these countries also fear it when they talk about European countries. So, if you're a democracy, in Europe or elsewhere, how do you remain independent? Obviously, you want to ally with a strong country (e.g. US) against known predators (e.g. Russia) and suspected predators (e.g. China, Turkey). But you also want to guard against too much dependence on your protector (Russia, China, but also the US and European countries, for instance, have been known to use and abuse leverage for political control). You also want to guard against election interference from the your protector (European countries have been doing this all over Africa, while CIA declassified documents confirm that CIA has been involved in election interference all over Europe since its founding – undoubtedly also true of KGB/FSB, but they don't declassify their documents). Of course, if you spend too much time looking over your shoulder at your allies because you don't trust them, you risk delivering yourself to your predator. Remaining independent is a complicated balancing act that most countries, not just Europe, play as well as they can. Germany's recent fumble shows how complicated but not that it's unnecessary.