The Taylor rule describes monetary policy in a regime where the federal funds rate is the primary monetary policy tool. It doesn't apply in a regime with enormo

The Taylor rule describes monetary policy in a regime where the federal funds rate is the primary monetary policy tool. It doesn't apply in a regime with enormous QE/QT going on. It also requires instantaneous measurement of its variables. These can be estimated in normal times but it's hard when there's been a recent anomaly. Is the 5.6% T4Q real growth the new normal or just the result of measuring out of a trough? One view of monetary policy is that its ultimate goal should be to stabilize NGDP growth -- usually to something like 5%. Looking at the trailing 8 quarters since 2019-Q4, NGDP growth has been 5.2%. Remarkably good. But there is some cause for concern. In my view: rising petroleum prices, QT, and further supply constraints from zero-Covid policy in China (in that order).