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The stock market is not the economy is the short answer. What is causing our current predicament has been the monetization of debt through quantitative easing
by sudden_dystopia 5y ago
The stock market is not the economy is the short answer. What is causing our current predicament has been the monetization of debt through quantitative easing programs since 2008 which was then compounded by increasing the money supply in the spring of 2020 drastically. And now the fed has to reverse course with quantitative tightening in order to beat back inflation. The easing and near 0 interest rates have gotten businesses addicted to cheap money and has kicked the can down the road in terms of how we end the easing programs. But now the Fed has no choice but to raise rates and tighten. In rational markets, you are correct, this should be priced in. But our markets have been highly irrational and algorithm driven for a while now and quite frankly, are delusional about our state of affairs. They think recession will equal more easing but that is not in the cards and there is going to be a rude awakening.