Low, with just how low depending on how you're defining "financial crash". While the war changes things incrementally, odds aren't significantly worse than 2 mo

Low, with just how low depending on how you're defining "financial crash". While the war changes things incrementally, odds aren't significantly worse than 2 months ago. It also makes US equities and assets more attractive, with Europe bearing most of the war related impact and China having their own issues this year. With rate hikes and 2021 tailwinds fading, a slowdown is obviously on the horizon, but nobody can tell you whether it'll qualify as a recession, whether it's this year, or whether things will break to a degree you could call it a crash.