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The same was said for PDAs from Apple Newton (1992) -> Windows CE devices (1996) -> Palm Pilot (1997) -> iPhone (2007). Lots of enthusiasts who thought having

The same was said for PDAs from Apple Newton (1992) -> Windows CE devices (1996) -> Palm Pilot (1997) -> iPhone (2007). Lots of enthusiasts who thought having a computer in their pocket was amazing and everyone else who thought it would never be anything more than a niche.

ekianjo 5y ago
SO are you saying that all niche eventually become mainstream products? I hate to disappoint you, but most niche products remain niche products. The exception you took is far from being the rule.
- JKCalhoun 5y ago
  Power glove.
- gfxgirl 5y ago
  I don't know. I only know that for me, after playing Half Life: Alyx, I never want the play a non-VR first person shooter again. Being there is 10x better than looking at a movie of being there (a 2D monitor). Having played No Man's Sky in VR I can't imagine being satisfied with a non VR space game. Having played Until You Fall, I can't imagine being okay with a non-VR action hand-2-hand combat game. Having played several rhythm games in VR I can't imagine going back to most 2D rhythm games. The VR ones make me dance so the experience is far more impactful. The 2D ones, maybe only those with accessories (Rockband, Guitar Hero) would still be ok but their excitement level is not even close to the VR games. Having played Jet Island I'd never be satisfied with non-VR Spiderman. Having played Farpoint I won't be able to appreciate the Metroid Prime 4. Even Astrobot VR makes it hard to go back to Mario even if Mario is a better game. I'm not saying all those games are perfect or even good, only that the immersion, presence, impact was such that I can't go back to many 2D monitor based games. Sure there are exceptions, it's not always about graphics or etc, but I'd much rather play GTA5 than GTA3, not because GTA3 is bad, it was great, but because based on the type of game it is it's just better with modern tech. The same is true for many well made games in VR. So will VR get to iPhone level? No idea. But I hope it gets close to PS4/PS5/Switch levels --- Let me add, my point in PDA progression is that we don't know what it will take for VR to explode. PDAs didn't explode until 3 things happened (1) switching from resistive (stylus required) to capacitive (finger) displays, (2) requiring a data connections, all previous PDAs it was an expensive option that few opted into but iPhone effectively required it since it was a replacement for your phone and so it forced users to see the benefit (3) an OS designed for fingers/phones first. In VR it could be we need smaller eyeglass like devices instead of bulky phone display devices: https://www.gmw3.com/2021/01/new-design-appears-at-ces-2021-for-panasonics-vr-glasses/ https://www.gmw3.com/2021/01/new-design-appears-at-ces-2021-... It could be we need the device to read your hands+fingers instead of requiring controllers. It could be we need to wait for the VR to be like that in Black Mirror, Season 5, episode 1, Striking Vipers. That's still "VR".
criddell 5y ago
My first VR experience was in 1992 (Dactyl Nightmare!) and I thought for sure it was going to be the next big thing. Thirty years later, I think the VR market is pretty big and might be plateauing. There are millions of headsets out there - enough for a lot of software companies to make money. Does it still need exponential growth? Or maybe it's going to take a company like Apple to really figure out VR. As you pointed out, it took them two swings at the pocket computing problem over 15 years to really nail it. Maybe the VR headset trajectory will be similar - semi-successful product in a year or two and then 15 years from now, something really great. I mostly believe the first thing I said is true - the VR market is pretty big and is only a failure if you were expecting iPhone-like success. AR, on the other hand, is going to blow up but probably not with anything head-mounted. For example, my car projects information onto my windshield when I drive. I think that qualifies as an AR device.
- gfxgirl 5y ago
  I believe AR will blow up but I don't believe AR entertainment will likely blow up except for a few niche games. It's arguably way too hard to fit every story to the environment you're in (AR) than to just put you in a different environment (VR) for playing a game or experiencing a VR movie.

ekianjo 5y ago

SO are you saying that all niche eventually become mainstream products? I hate to disappoint you, but most niche products remain niche products. The exception you took is far from being the rule.

JKCalhoun 5y ago
Power glove.
gfxgirl 5y ago
I don't know. I only know that for me, after playing Half Life: Alyx, I never want the play a non-VR first person shooter again. Being there is 10x better than looking at a movie of being there (a 2D monitor). Having played No Man's Sky in VR I can't imagine being satisfied with a non VR space game. Having played Until You Fall, I can't imagine being okay with a non-VR action hand-2-hand combat game. Having played several rhythm games in VR I can't imagine going back to most 2D rhythm games. The VR ones make me dance so the experience is far more impactful. The 2D ones, maybe only those with accessories (Rockband, Guitar Hero) would still be ok but their excitement level is not even close to the VR games. Having played Jet Island I'd never be satisfied with non-VR Spiderman. Having played Farpoint I won't be able to appreciate the Metroid Prime 4. Even Astrobot VR makes it hard to go back to Mario even if Mario is a better game. I'm not saying all those games are perfect or even good, only that the immersion, presence, impact was such that I can't go back to many 2D monitor based games. Sure there are exceptions, it's not always about graphics or etc, but I'd much rather play GTA5 than GTA3, not because GTA3 is bad, it was great, but because based on the type of game it is it's just better with modern tech. The same is true for many well made games in VR. So will VR get to iPhone level? No idea. But I hope it gets close to PS4/PS5/Switch levels --- Let me add, my point in PDA progression is that we don't know what it will take for VR to explode. PDAs didn't explode until 3 things happened (1) switching from resistive (stylus required) to capacitive (finger) displays, (2) requiring a data connections, all previous PDAs it was an expensive option that few opted into but iPhone effectively required it since it was a replacement for your phone and so it forced users to see the benefit (3) an OS designed for fingers/phones first. In VR it could be we need smaller eyeglass like devices instead of bulky phone display devices: https://www.gmw3.com/2021/01/new-design-appears-at-ces-2021-for-panasonics-vr-glasses/ https://www.gmw3.com/2021/01/new-design-appears-at-ces-2021-... It could be we need the device to read your hands+fingers instead of requiring controllers. It could be we need to wait for the VR to be like that in Black Mirror, Season 5, episode 1, Striking Vipers. That's still "VR".

criddell 5y ago

My first VR experience was in 1992 (Dactyl Nightmare!) and I thought for sure it was going to be the next big thing. Thirty years later, I think the VR market is pretty big and might be plateauing. There are millions of headsets out there - enough for a lot of software companies to make money. Does it still need exponential growth? Or maybe it's going to take a company like Apple to really figure out VR. As you pointed out, it took them two swings at the pocket computing problem over 15 years to really nail it. Maybe the VR headset trajectory will be similar - semi-successful product in a year or two and then 15 years from now, something really great. I mostly believe the first thing I said is true - the VR market is pretty big and is only a failure if you were expecting iPhone-like success. AR, on the other hand, is going to blow up but probably not with anything head-mounted. For example, my car projects information onto my windshield when I drive. I think that qualifies as an AR device.

gfxgirl 5y ago
I believe AR will blow up but I don't believe AR entertainment will likely blow up except for a few niche games. It's arguably way too hard to fit every story to the environment you're in (AR) than to just put you in a different environment (VR) for playing a game or experiencing a VR movie.