I would use PCE inflation of 5% and output gap of 0 which gives 8.5% target. 5 + 0 + 0.5 (5-2) + 2 Atlanta Fed has a calculator https://www.atlantafed.org/cqe

I would use PCE inflation of 5% and output gap of 0 which gives 8.5% target. 5 + 0 + 0.5 (5-2) + 2 Atlanta Fed has a calculator https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/taylor-rule https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/taylor-rule to the extent you think there is an output gap or you are willing to let inflation run hot for a bit due to COVID catchup because you think it's temporary, you can shade that down but it only gets you a couple percent. so the march 2022 Fed dot plot with rates maxing out around 3% seems pretty optimistic. but if they posted a dot plot in line with Taylor rule, markets would crash, politicians would go nuts. so they are not going to do that, so they will keep tightening gradually and hope for the best. it's hard to see inflation cooling sufficiently without a recession. eventually at some point of course we will end up in one. the question is how long and how high inflation has to get. the political implications of a recession right now are a bit grim.