No, see, that's not a good comparison. You're already doing exactly what I said, which is compressing to a single probability. There's only one probability in

No, see, that's not a good comparison. You're already doing exactly what I said, which is compressing to a single probability. There's only one probability in russian roulette. The prior is that you pulled the trigger. The probability is whether you got a bullet. There's two layers of probability in this instance. The prior is that you had COVID. The first layer is whether, due to your infection, you're at increased risk for the various heart diseases. The second layer is whether you actually get heart disease. If you cannot determine which group an individual is in for the first layer, then insisting that it exists doesn't really help except for "well akshually". "You're at risk for increased risks of heart disease." Just collapse the probabilities to a single layer, "You're at increased risks of heart disease."