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They won't get help in the form of military intervention. The US wants the war to drag on because it's bad for Russia, but there is no way they will risk their

by a0-prw 5y ago

They won't get help in the form of military intervention. The US wants the war to drag on because it's bad for Russia, but there is no way they will risk their own skin in a nuclear war. Ukrainians are discovering what Kurds, Afghans, Georgians and South Vietnamese learned: It is more dangerous to be buddies with the US, than to be their enemies.

int_19h 5y ago
That's exactly why I'm pessimistic. The real problem is that once nuclear threats work, it's unclear why Russia should stop using them. For example, they now have a major security problem with Kaliningrad being an exclave - it's completely surrounded by unfriendly countries, and now even air cannot be reliably used to supply it; only shipping via the Baltic, which is itself a route that's easy to threaten. So suppose they demand that Lithuania gives them a land corridor from Belarus to Kaliningrad, or else? Lithuania is a NATO member, and would, of course, invoke Article 5 - but would Americans be willing to risk their own skin in a nuclear war for the sake of Lithuania anymore so than they did for the sake of Ukraine, regardless of NATO membership? OTOH it's also unclear why Russia should respond with nukes to a conventional intervention in Ukraine. Worst case, they lose Ukraine; is that worth a nuclear war in which they lose Russia itself? Mind you, this is assuming that Putin is rational, which is itself questionable. But if he's truly insane, then only he knows if and when he's going to press that button, and all these attempts to guess what not to do to prevent him from doing so are very likely to be futile in the long run.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> They won't get help in the form of military intervention. I wouldn't count on that; a big part of the political calculus in the response is managing risk while assuring NATO’s Eastern flank countries of NATO’s (and particularly, the major North American and Western European powers) commitment to their security needs. 3 of those Eastern Flank countries have called for military intervention by NATO already (Estonia and Lithuania for enforcing a No Fly Zone, Poland for a peacekeeping force on the ground.)

by a0-prw 5y ago

int_19h 5y ago

That's exactly why I'm pessimistic. The real problem is that once nuclear threats work, it's unclear why Russia should stop using them. For example, they now have a major security problem with Kaliningrad being an exclave - it's completely surrounded by unfriendly countries, and now even air cannot be reliably used to supply it; only shipping via the Baltic, which is itself a route that's easy to threaten. So suppose they demand that Lithuania gives them a land corridor from Belarus to Kaliningrad, or else? Lithuania is a NATO member, and would, of course, invoke Article 5 - but would Americans be willing to risk their own skin in a nuclear war for the sake of Lithuania anymore so than they did for the sake of Ukraine, regardless of NATO membership? OTOH it's also unclear why Russia should respond with nukes to a conventional intervention in Ukraine. Worst case, they lose Ukraine; is that worth a nuclear war in which they lose Russia itself? Mind you, this is assuming that Putin is rational, which is itself questionable. But if he's truly insane, then only he knows if and when he's going to press that button, and all these attempts to guess what not to do to prevent him from doing so are very likely to be futile in the long run.

dragonwriter 5y ago

> They won't get help in the form of military intervention. I wouldn't count on that; a big part of the political calculus in the response is managing risk while assuring NATO’s Eastern flank countries of NATO’s (and particularly, the major North American and Western European powers) commitment to their security needs. 3 of those Eastern Flank countries have called for military intervention by NATO already (Estonia and Lithuania for enforcing a No Fly Zone, Poland for a peacekeeping force on the ground.)