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>> but it needs to remain in EU's good graces, if it wants to maintain its hegemony. I dont think that is true, and in reality hitching our (the US) future to

by syshum 5y ago

>> but it needs to remain in EU's good graces, if it wants to maintain its hegemony. I dont think that is true, and in reality hitching our (the US) future to the EU's idiosyncrasies will likely lead to the US losing power not keeping it EU is at best a Fair weather ally to the US. UK rightfully saw the problem with the EU and pulled out, I personally that that was the right move for the UK. I think NATO is a better organizing body, and alliance than the EU. I think we will continue to see EU as a governing body reduce in power. Economic Free Trade and NATO will remain but there are structural issues with the EU as a Federation or what ever they consider themselves

vkou 5y ago
> I dont think that is true, and in reality hitching our (the US) future to the EU's idiosyncrasies will likely lead to the US losing power not keeping it Hard disagreement. The US is becoming less and less economically relevant, with the rise of the developing world. It used to be nearly half of the world's GDP - over two thirds, when combined with Western Europe. It's now at under a quarter (much lower when adjusted for PPP), and is utterly reliant on developing world supply chains for its most basic products - and its not doing so under the kind of gunpoint trade terms that the colonial empires of the 19th and 20th centuries could impose on their subjects. If Europe's status drops to being an ally of convenience, I expect the sun to set on the American empire in about two decades.
- syshum 5y ago
  I think that is likely going to happen anyway, The political leadership of the US has no desire do to what is required to keep power. They like the business world are too focused on the short term, in the case of politicians it is the next election, in the case of business it is the quarterly earning statements Neither are looking at a 20, 10 or even 5 year picture.
  - vkou 5y ago
    US politicians publicly say they have a short-term focus, but the bureaucracy (Department of State, in particular) has a much longer view that has very little bearing on political campaign promises. On the first week of the war, I thought that NATO was played like a fiddle. On the second week of the war, when the US demonstrated its ability to galvanize most of the world into unprecedented, crippling sanctions, it became clear to me that it still punches way above its weight, when it comes to soft power - because of its allies.
    - Yoric 5y ago
      Yep. Never underestimate soft power. The UK managed to stay relevant for much longer than reasonable thanks to soft power. Even France, at the end of the Napoleonic Wars, managed to survive being invaded by all of Europe, solely on soft power.
Yoric 5y ago
It's interesting, because the EU also considers the US at best a fair weather ally, when not a bully. And that was before Trump. During the Trump presidency, the EU was strongly considering the fact that the US could turn into an enemy any day, without any further warning. Kinda what happened with Russia, who was an economic partner and turned into an enemy without any further warning.
- syshum 5y ago
  - JAlexoid 5y ago
    US literally had a trade representative tell Volkswagen to move their engine manufacturing facility to US, or face heavy import duties. US is not free from being taken over by a national populist. Currently the highest rated TV show in US is run by a national conservative. Thank god, that American institutions are stronger than Donny, but had he been in office for another 4 years - it would have been dire.
  - olifante 5y ago
    This is not a helpful comment. The Trumpian Republican party is here to stay, and it's very easy to imagine it being quite damaging to European interests and security once it's back in power. If there's one thing that the Trumpian right has shown is an appetite for the exercise of naked power, without any mask of moral pretences.
    - syshum 5y ago
      Please cite specific policies that are examples of this "exercise of naked power, without any mask of moral pretenses"...
  - Yoric 5y ago
    In case you're trying to insult me: I'm pretty sure that this is not what I wrote.
- 5y ago

by syshum 5y ago

vkou 5y ago

> I dont think that is true, and in reality hitching our (the US) future to the EU's idiosyncrasies will likely lead to the US losing power not keeping it Hard disagreement. The US is becoming less and less economically relevant, with the rise of the developing world. It used to be nearly half of the world's GDP - over two thirds, when combined with Western Europe. It's now at under a quarter (much lower when adjusted for PPP), and is utterly reliant on developing world supply chains for its most basic products - and its not doing so under the kind of gunpoint trade terms that the colonial empires of the 19th and 20th centuries could impose on their subjects. If Europe's status drops to being an ally of convenience, I expect the sun to set on the American empire in about two decades.

syshum 5y ago
I think that is likely going to happen anyway, The political leadership of the US has no desire do to what is required to keep power. They like the business world are too focused on the short term, in the case of politicians it is the next election, in the case of business it is the quarterly earning statements Neither are looking at a 20, 10 or even 5 year picture.
- vkou 5y ago
  US politicians publicly say they have a short-term focus, but the bureaucracy (Department of State, in particular) has a much longer view that has very little bearing on political campaign promises. On the first week of the war, I thought that NATO was played like a fiddle. On the second week of the war, when the US demonstrated its ability to galvanize most of the world into unprecedented, crippling sanctions, it became clear to me that it still punches way above its weight, when it comes to soft power - because of its allies.
  - Yoric 5y ago
    Yep. Never underestimate soft power. The UK managed to stay relevant for much longer than reasonable thanks to soft power. Even France, at the end of the Napoleonic Wars, managed to survive being invaded by all of Europe, solely on soft power.

Yoric 5y ago

It's interesting, because the EU also considers the US at best a fair weather ally, when not a bully. And that was before Trump. During the Trump presidency, the EU was strongly considering the fact that the US could turn into an enemy any day, without any further warning. Kinda what happened with Russia, who was an economic partner and turned into an enemy without any further warning.

syshum 5y ago
- JAlexoid 5y ago
  US literally had a trade representative tell Volkswagen to move their engine manufacturing facility to US, or face heavy import duties. US is not free from being taken over by a national populist. Currently the highest rated TV show in US is run by a national conservative. Thank god, that American institutions are stronger than Donny, but had he been in office for another 4 years - it would have been dire.
- olifante 5y ago
  This is not a helpful comment. The Trumpian Republican party is here to stay, and it's very easy to imagine it being quite damaging to European interests and security once it's back in power. If there's one thing that the Trumpian right has shown is an appetite for the exercise of naked power, without any mask of moral pretences.
  - syshum 5y ago
    Please cite specific policies that are examples of this "exercise of naked power, without any mask of moral pretenses"...
- Yoric 5y ago
  In case you're trying to insult me: I'm pretty sure that this is not what I wrote.
5y ago