I would expect any serious Russian cyber attack would more closely resemble "polonium tea" in the sense that it would be: incredibly destructive, quite obviousl

I would expect any serious Russian cyber attack would more closely resemble "polonium tea" in the sense that it would be: incredibly destructive, quite obviously from a state actor, and yet officially not connectable to Russia. Strategically cyber attacks are the most effective when they damage your adversary heavily, and yet at the same time make it so that politically retaliation looks like aggression since there is no unquestionable link between the actor and the action. Consider Stuxnet as an example. Widely understood to be a joint US/Israeli cyber attack on Iran, and at the same time difficult to retaliate against. While annoying, these outages we've been seeing are hardly doing any serious harm. Very little money is ultimately lost because of them, and it's not remotely clear that this is a cyber attack. So if they were cyber attacks it wouldn't make much sense. Not saying that it's impossible they are, but it seems there are many other more plausible explainations.