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There is an old thing in war called a Pyrrhic Victory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_victory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_victory Russia is do
by aurizon 5y ago
There is an old thing in war called a Pyrrhic Victory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_victory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_victory
Russia is doing this now. It is wasting large numbers of men and resources against a smaller foe simply because it is a dictatorship and there is no one to assess the battle and tally up the cost who counts. Russian men, of which 50% are ill trained conscripts, are being fed into a modern day meat grinder. It is reminiscent of the Korean War when China threw so many men against US machine guns that there soldiers were unable to advance over the mounds of bodies. The US suffered far smaller losses and staged a managed retreat under fire where machine gun lines were set up behind the firing line, and they then quickly stopped firing from the firing line, packed up and retreated while the next line maintained fire from a longer range so the meat grinder persisted - this persisted until the UN Allied forces were relieved with greater forces and a cease fire line and settlement finally emerged.
Ukraine has better troops, in smaller numbers, from a smaller national base = Putin has decided to seek a Pyrrhic victory. He has expanded to civilian shelling and feels he will eventually reach the point of terminal depletion of Ukraine's men and materials.
NATO allies are sending in force magnifiers, anti tank and anti air weapons carried by 1-2 man teams. The Ukrainians are using Chinese over the counter retail small drones to fly in at a few hundred feet at night, with IR Flir cameras and memory chips to record the trip they are too small for radar and not easily seen as they fly. These 10-20 minute trips(some longer) return and go out repeatedly with new batteries and the video is inspected for tank etc data. Crews then go and destroy the targets of high value. Command bunkers are located as much as possible and night vision snipers may be able to hit exposed personnel, often at down as the crews and officers emerge for the day's attack.
So the question is: Can the command levels of the Russian army see this(certainly - they know it is a small scale meat grinder) - can the top brass influence Putin? He has surrounded himself with obedient yes men all armed to protect him as he is a fearful man, paranoid about being poisoned he recently purged his local group by about 1000 people as he knows he has huge internal opposition. At which point will the opposition reach the point where they act to influence him?
This will be a suicide mission as his cadre will act to kill any assassins that emerge. The question becomes one of information reaching the people at large. Tens of thousand of Russian have protested, 5-10,000 have been arrested, and more thousands beaten and released. Social Media is gradually getting though, via Telegram, and various Apps. ggm 11 is quite correct in his assessment. Russia can not garrison Ukraine with tens of 1000's of rifles in public hands.
In sum, the Russian people and possibly the generals will have to act soon or this meat grinder will carry on.
It can also be ended by Ukraine's capitulation to Russia's demands for land and an agreement to eschew NATO = neutral buffer state?
- kozak 5y agoFor us Ukrainians, capitulation is not an option because Putin wants to do a "denazification". Under this word he means purging (killing or sending to a gulag) every Ukrainian who is known to be openly pro-Ukrainian (which used to be about 25% of adult population before Feb 24, and is even more now).
- aurizon 5y agoYes, The Russians might be forced to stop because the word of the truth is getting out bit by bit. Gradually he may be forced to back because his control is far from perfect and the losses are becoming known. Byelorussia is simmering, and there may be a revolution there?. I had the idea to print "Green cards" with dual Russian/English to circulate among the Russian soldiers. It would grant the holder to apply to be a US/European immigrant. Such is the magic appeal of the US green card that it might encourage defections? Of course, I can not grant these personally, but there has been such a strong positive response to people escaping Ukraine globally, that the USA may well step up and accept migrants. Just an idea, but properly promoted it might have legs.