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This is an important step. For the first time there is full self driving where the driver is no longer require to pay attention to what the car is doing. Howeve

by _ph_ 5y ago

This is an important step. For the first time there is full self driving where the driver is no longer require to pay attention to what the car is doing. However, this is not a generic solution. This system is limited to a very narrow set of conditions. Specifically, to premapped highways with a divider between directions, no crossings, just on- and off ramps. On top of that, at very low speed, so in normal traffic you unfortunately cannot use it either. So how does this compare to Teslas FSD (not Autopilot, which really is only an assistant)? The answer is: not much at all. The Mercedes system has limited the conditions to a point, where it basically just has to do collision avoidance with traffic with predictable behavior. It is limited to selected roads. You don't need much "AI" here and for this task, LIDAR excels in the specified weather conditions. The Tesla FSD system on the other side aims to be a generic driving AI. It has no limitations about on which roads it operates, it uses maps only for navigation to the destination. But the driving operation is done solely by the evaluation of camera footage. Which already works in many more environmental conditions than the Mercedes system. These systems approach the goal from entirely two directions. The Tesla system aims to be a complete solution, but certainly is not able to do that unobserved in the current state. It is doing reasonably well at that, but the literally billion dollar question is, can it ever get so reliable, that the driver can completely hand over to car ever? On the other side Mercedes has full autonomy, but they achieved that in a very limited and controlled environment - it remains to be seen how much they can extend that.

arlcode 5y ago
Good analysis. MB also uses cameras extensively. LIDAR and maps are used in addition. I wonder whether these approaches will one day meet in the middle.
Tomis02 5y ago
> The Tesla FSD system on the other side aims to be a generic driving AI. ... can it ever get so reliable, that the driver can completely hand over to car ever? Using the current machine learning algorithms? Not likely. Imagine releasing a new airplane and telling the pilot - "this airplane flies well in 99% of scenarios, but 1% of the time it refuses to respond to pilot commands and kills everyone on board. We don't know why it happens but we'll keep training the model". That's the state we're currently at with "AI"; as someone put it, it's alchemy. If it works, we don't know why. If it doesn't, we don't know why - but we tune the parameters until it seems to work. We cannot prove it will work for every possible input. ... Not exactly a scientific approach by any means. Such self-driving cars might be accepted in USA but I imagine they'd quickly get banned in Europe after a few random fatalities.
- Flankk 5y ago
  In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles. https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
  - KaiserPro 5y ago
    there are a few things to unpack here 1) Autosteer and active safety features are not "autopilot", its adaptive cruise control. 2) if they think something bad is about to happen, it beeps and hands over control, thus its the drivers fault, as the system wasn't engaged at the time of the crash 3) its not their self driving tech.
    - jahller 5y ago
      exactly. Steer assisting and active safety features are standard features for every upper class car you buy today.
    - onethought 5y ago
      1) Autosteer + active safety features is exactly what autopilot is. What do you think it is? 2) Tesla count 5 seconds after a disengagement and count it as a fault of autopilot if a crash occurs. 3) It's part of their self driving tech, but it's different to FSD - yes.
      - KaiserPro 5y ago
        > Autosteer + active safety features is exactly what autopilot is. If you ask a normal person on the street what "autopilot" means in a car, you'll get a range of answers. But the consistent opinion is that autopilot means that you don't need to concentrate. Most will say that its automatic driving, and will drive for you. But autosteer requires concentration. Its just sparkling lane assist. > it's different to FSD - yes. Which is the point. Its marketing fluff. Autopilot isn't really that, its adaptive cruise control with lane assist. Thats the thing that rankles. All of this stupidity, injury, and noise comes from a marketing decision. One designed to cover up that the CEO over promised and wildly under delivered _yet again_.
samhw 5y ago
> So how does this compare to Teslas FSD? Well, it exists. Courtesy of Wikipedia: > In December 2015, Musk predicted "complete autonomy" by 2018. At the end of 2016, Tesla expected to demonstrate full autonomy by the end of 2017, and in April 2017, Musk predicted that in around two years, drivers would be able to sleep in their vehicle while it drives itself. In 2018 Tesla revised the date to demonstrate full autonomy to be by the end of 2019. In February 2019, Musk stated that Tesla's FSD capability would be "feature complete" by the end of 2019. In January 2020, Musk claimed the FSD software would be "feature complete" by the end of 2020, adding that feature complete "doesn't mean that features are working well". In August 2020, Musk stated that 200 software engineers, 100 hardware engineers and 500 "labelers" were working on Autopilot and FSD. In early 2021, Musk stated that Tesla would provide SAE Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021 and that Tesla plans to release a monthly subscription package for FSD in 2021. An email conversation between Tesla and the California Department of Motor Vehicles retrieved via a Freedom of Information Act request by PlainSite contradicts Musk's forward-looking statement. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#Predictions_and_deployment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#Predictions_an... (Also, incidentally, Musk's decision to use cameras instead of LIDAR – for depth perception etc – is insane and is widely regarded as such. He's doubled down on saying LIDAR is rubbish, since the entire industry has bet on it, and presumably Tesla is too far into the woods to reverse.)
- judge2020 5y ago
  > Musk's decision to use cameras instead of LIDAR – for depth perception etc – is insane and is widely regarded as such Let me know when humans get lidar implants because they can't perceive depth via their eyes.
  - ahahahahah 5y ago
    Catchy, but not a particularly good criticism. Few people believe that using cameras for this is impossible, only that it makes the problem so much more difficult that it's insane to think that that's the way to go if your goal is to be a leader in self driving.

by _ph_ 5y ago

arlcode 5y ago

Good analysis. MB also uses cameras extensively. LIDAR and maps are used in addition. I wonder whether these approaches will one day meet in the middle.

Tomis02 5y ago

> The Tesla FSD system on the other side aims to be a generic driving AI. ... can it ever get so reliable, that the driver can completely hand over to car ever? Using the current machine learning algorithms? Not likely. Imagine releasing a new airplane and telling the pilot - "this airplane flies well in 99% of scenarios, but 1% of the time it refuses to respond to pilot commands and kills everyone on board. We don't know why it happens but we'll keep training the model". That's the state we're currently at with "AI"; as someone put it, it's alchemy. If it works, we don't know why. If it doesn't, we don't know why - but we tune the parameters until it seems to work. We cannot prove it will work for every possible input. ... Not exactly a scientific approach by any means. Such self-driving cars might be accepted in USA but I imagine they'd quickly get banned in Europe after a few random fatalities.

Flankk 5y ago
In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles. https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
- KaiserPro 5y ago
  there are a few things to unpack here 1) Autosteer and active safety features are not "autopilot", its adaptive cruise control. 2) if they think something bad is about to happen, it beeps and hands over control, thus its the drivers fault, as the system wasn't engaged at the time of the crash 3) its not their self driving tech.
  - jahller 5y ago
    exactly. Steer assisting and active safety features are standard features for every upper class car you buy today.
  - onethought 5y ago
    1) Autosteer + active safety features is exactly what autopilot is. What do you think it is? 2) Tesla count 5 seconds after a disengagement and count it as a fault of autopilot if a crash occurs. 3) It's part of their self driving tech, but it's different to FSD - yes.
    - KaiserPro 5y ago
      > Autosteer + active safety features is exactly what autopilot is. If you ask a normal person on the street what "autopilot" means in a car, you'll get a range of answers. But the consistent opinion is that autopilot means that you don't need to concentrate. Most will say that its automatic driving, and will drive for you. But autosteer requires concentration. Its just sparkling lane assist. > it's different to FSD - yes. Which is the point. Its marketing fluff. Autopilot isn't really that, its adaptive cruise control with lane assist. Thats the thing that rankles. All of this stupidity, injury, and noise comes from a marketing decision. One designed to cover up that the CEO over promised and wildly under delivered _yet again_.

samhw 5y ago

> So how does this compare to Teslas FSD? Well, it exists. Courtesy of Wikipedia: > In December 2015, Musk predicted "complete autonomy" by 2018. At the end of 2016, Tesla expected to demonstrate full autonomy by the end of 2017, and in April 2017, Musk predicted that in around two years, drivers would be able to sleep in their vehicle while it drives itself. In 2018 Tesla revised the date to demonstrate full autonomy to be by the end of 2019. In February 2019, Musk stated that Tesla's FSD capability would be "feature complete" by the end of 2019. In January 2020, Musk claimed the FSD software would be "feature complete" by the end of 2020, adding that feature complete "doesn't mean that features are working well". In August 2020, Musk stated that 200 software engineers, 100 hardware engineers and 500 "labelers" were working on Autopilot and FSD. In early 2021, Musk stated that Tesla would provide SAE Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021 and that Tesla plans to release a monthly subscription package for FSD in 2021. An email conversation between Tesla and the California Department of Motor Vehicles retrieved via a Freedom of Information Act request by PlainSite contradicts Musk's forward-looking statement. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#Predictions_and_deployment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#Predictions_an... (Also, incidentally, Musk's decision to use cameras instead of LIDAR – for depth perception etc – is insane and is widely regarded as such. He's doubled down on saying LIDAR is rubbish, since the entire industry has bet on it, and presumably Tesla is too far into the woods to reverse.)

judge2020 5y ago
> Musk's decision to use cameras instead of LIDAR – for depth perception etc – is insane and is widely regarded as such Let me know when humans get lidar implants because they can't perceive depth via their eyes.
- ahahahahah 5y ago
  Catchy, but not a particularly good criticism. Few people believe that using cameras for this is impossible, only that it makes the problem so much more difficult that it's insane to think that that's the way to go if your goal is to be a leader in self driving.