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There have been numerous articles suggesting Putin miscalculated, had bad intel, and was surrounded by “yes-men.” The crux being Putin can’t stop now even if h

There have been numerous articles suggesting Putin miscalculated, had bad intel, and was surrounded by “yes-men.” The crux being Putin can’t stop now even if he wanted because it would make him look weak. They are all dancing around one of the most prolific war-time headline phrases, almost like the media is purposely holding off on using it until it’s been sufficiently built up before dropping it. I predict we will begin to see very shortly and hear endlessly on the 24/7 news cycle: Ukraine is an intractable quagmire for Putin. The media has used the phrase intractable quagmire to describe Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Its like a right of passage for every new generation of media covering a conflict.

BipolarCapybara 5y ago
To be honest, this conflict resembles some similarity with the Afghan invasion, just the Soviet one
Angostura 5y ago
> Its like a right of passage for every new generation of media covering a conflict. More like a rite of passage for every occupying force.
- throwawaycities 5y ago
  Maybe, but in the 8 years of Russia occupying Crimea the media never called Ukraine an intractable quagmire for Russia, they mostly ignored it.
mardifoufs 5y ago
All of those putin stories are coming from either shady tweets or outright ukrainian propaganda. And I doubt ukrainian state media has access to putin's personal feelings. Now don't get me wrong, it's necessary propaganda and it's war. But it's incredible to me that people actually what amount to fan fiction. Like seriously, no ukrainian I've talked with believes those far fetched but very convenient story. They know it's a war and propaganda is part of the war effort but they don't actually believe it themselves. I've only seen westerners eat those stories and craft their own lore around it. I guess we forgot about the supposed military coup to overthrow putin, him hiding in the Ural in fear of his life, the military units that were about to defect... 2 weeks ago. At the end of the day, it does not matter even if it was true. We need to focus on helping ukraine and actually stay tethered to the reality on the ground and concrete actions we can do. There is a war on the ground, and for all intents and purposes there is absolutely 0 way for us to know about the inner dynamics of the Kremlin that wouldn't be completely tainted by propaganda.
- ineedasername 5y ago
  As for a coup, political purges and arresting top officials-- which does seem credible intel-- will certainly make the remaining leadership a little uneasy. Maybe not enough for a coup, but in chaotic situations the outcome can hinge on small things.
- throwawaycities 5y ago
  > All of those putin stories are coming from either shady tweets or outright ukrainian propaganda. These “stories” as you call them are coming from nearly all western media. > there is absolutely 0 way for us to know about the inner dynamics of the Kremlin that wouldn't be completely tainted by propaganda. We don’t need to know the inner workings of the Kremlin to know that 8 years ago Putin illegally invaded Ukraine annexing Crimea, and based on the lack of response that he would be emboldened to eventually continue his use of force. It’s great to champion support for Ukraine now, but most of that is just virtue signaling, where was the support for the last 8 years as Russia occupied entire parts of Ukraine? Crimea was both geographically strategic put also a chance for Putin to gage response of the internationally community. It’s not exactly propaganda that he would have thought this armed conflict would have unfolded similarly his use of force and annexation of Ukrainian territory 8 years ago.
  - noduerme 5y ago
    On the other hand, the unexpectedly unified response of the EU here may give him some pause should he decide to take the next step toward the Baltics. I think the comparison with Poland is not apt (despite the stunning similarities in the headlines - which make this a fantastic read), because Hitler's invasion of Poland triggered a declaration of war by the Allies, which Hitler was prepared for, and whom he invaded directly afterwards. This step by Putin is more similar to the invasion of Czechoslovakia, which met little enough resistance that he was emboldened to go after Poland. The Allies did help to arm Poland in the months after Czechoslovakia fell, as we're arming and moving troops to Latvia now, but England and France continued to pursue appeasement with Hitler. And in any case, Hitler had good reason to believe he could win a war in the West without American involvement, and given his pact with Stalin. Putin's pact with China looks a lot shakier; the West's reaction to a non-alliance country's invasion is much more united; the signals don't point to the idea that Putin could win any territory against NATO. If Germany were still debating the nordstream pipeline, if Orban had gotten on his side, if the sanctions had not been as extreme, he might take that as a signal that we were able to be picked off. So I think some differences apply. It's true that our reaction to Crimea was akin to the West's reaction to Hitler's initial occupation of the Sudetenland, so he probably assumed this would go as well as Czechoslovakia... but thankfully it looks like he's a step behind.
ineedasername 5y ago
And Afghanistan was an intractable quagmire for Russia long before it was for the US. You'd think these lessons would be learned better.

BipolarCapybara 5y ago

To be honest, this conflict resembles some similarity with the Afghan invasion, just the Soviet one

Angostura 5y ago

> Its like a right of passage for every new generation of media covering a conflict. More like a rite of passage for every occupying force.

throwawaycities 5y ago
Maybe, but in the 8 years of Russia occupying Crimea the media never called Ukraine an intractable quagmire for Russia, they mostly ignored it.

mardifoufs 5y ago

All of those putin stories are coming from either shady tweets or outright ukrainian propaganda. And I doubt ukrainian state media has access to putin's personal feelings. Now don't get me wrong, it's necessary propaganda and it's war. But it's incredible to me that people actually what amount to fan fiction. Like seriously, no ukrainian I've talked with believes those far fetched but very convenient story. They know it's a war and propaganda is part of the war effort but they don't actually believe it themselves. I've only seen westerners eat those stories and craft their own lore around it. I guess we forgot about the supposed military coup to overthrow putin, him hiding in the Ural in fear of his life, the military units that were about to defect... 2 weeks ago. At the end of the day, it does not matter even if it was true. We need to focus on helping ukraine and actually stay tethered to the reality on the ground and concrete actions we can do. There is a war on the ground, and for all intents and purposes there is absolutely 0 way for us to know about the inner dynamics of the Kremlin that wouldn't be completely tainted by propaganda.

ineedasername 5y ago
As for a coup, political purges and arresting top officials-- which does seem credible intel-- will certainly make the remaining leadership a little uneasy. Maybe not enough for a coup, but in chaotic situations the outcome can hinge on small things.
throwawaycities 5y ago
> All of those putin stories are coming from either shady tweets or outright ukrainian propaganda. These “stories” as you call them are coming from nearly all western media. > there is absolutely 0 way for us to know about the inner dynamics of the Kremlin that wouldn't be completely tainted by propaganda. We don’t need to know the inner workings of the Kremlin to know that 8 years ago Putin illegally invaded Ukraine annexing Crimea, and based on the lack of response that he would be emboldened to eventually continue his use of force. It’s great to champion support for Ukraine now, but most of that is just virtue signaling, where was the support for the last 8 years as Russia occupied entire parts of Ukraine? Crimea was both geographically strategic put also a chance for Putin to gage response of the internationally community. It’s not exactly propaganda that he would have thought this armed conflict would have unfolded similarly his use of force and annexation of Ukrainian territory 8 years ago.
- noduerme 5y ago
  On the other hand, the unexpectedly unified response of the EU here may give him some pause should he decide to take the next step toward the Baltics. I think the comparison with Poland is not apt (despite the stunning similarities in the headlines - which make this a fantastic read), because Hitler's invasion of Poland triggered a declaration of war by the Allies, which Hitler was prepared for, and whom he invaded directly afterwards. This step by Putin is more similar to the invasion of Czechoslovakia, which met little enough resistance that he was emboldened to go after Poland. The Allies did help to arm Poland in the months after Czechoslovakia fell, as we're arming and moving troops to Latvia now, but England and France continued to pursue appeasement with Hitler. And in any case, Hitler had good reason to believe he could win a war in the West without American involvement, and given his pact with Stalin. Putin's pact with China looks a lot shakier; the West's reaction to a non-alliance country's invasion is much more united; the signals don't point to the idea that Putin could win any territory against NATO. If Germany were still debating the nordstream pipeline, if Orban had gotten on his side, if the sanctions had not been as extreme, he might take that as a signal that we were able to be picked off. So I think some differences apply. It's true that our reaction to Crimea was akin to the West's reaction to Hitler's initial occupation of the Sudetenland, so he probably assumed this would go as well as Czechoslovakia... but thankfully it looks like he's a step behind.

ineedasername 5y ago

And Afghanistan was an intractable quagmire for Russia long before it was for the US. You'd think these lessons would be learned better.