5 ms·

This form of nihilistic cynicism is so dull because it's non-falsifiable.

yakak 5y ago
It is time intensive but not particularly hard to collect data from job postings and types of exits start-ups eventually make. I find it hard to get a good quick estimation since it is hard not to think of key examples that fit my personal expectations.
smegsicle 5y ago
it's nihilistic if you find meaning in microservices, and cynical if you don't think there's a weird tech VC bubble..
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  I think it's pretty absurd that you could in/validate many startup hypotheses with only a few hundred grand. You can maybe pay for two engineers (plus overhead) working for a year for that price, but you'll also need someone to do your accounting, legal, product, etc work.
javajosh 5y ago
Generally agree, but it's not cynicism, it's pessimism. Specifically about human nature - e.g. that people will encourage complexity simply to protect their jobs. I think, at worst, people will NOT make an extra effort to reduce complexity. A sin, but a small one in the scheme of things.
- Gigachad 5y ago
  I don’t think any programmers are worried about job security right now. But I would say that having advanced and shiny tech is a very compelling feature to a job. I’m seeing generic Wordpress/php agencies really struggle to retain developers because no one wants to work on wordpress or php because it’s not a long term career. So places which do the exact same websites in Rails and React are doing better because even though wordpress might be faster and easier, you have to pay people more than you would if you have cool tech.
  - javajosh 5y ago
    I feel like we're on the brink of nuclear war, and I'm thinking about asymptotic behavior of webapp stacks...and I'm okay with that! I would guess that both PHP and Rails/React (and Java, C#, Python) folk will have all the work they can stomach, if they can stomach it. Consider how in-demand COBOL programmers are these days!
    - Gigachad 5y ago
      >Consider how in-demand COBOL programmers are these days! I keep hearing this but I have only ever heard bad things from the people who work there. Considering how in demand all developers are right now I wouldn't even think of getting in to some obsolete tech. You'd have to pay me enough to retire quickly.
- Nextgrid 5y ago
  I don't believe it's malice per-se. The market sets the tone and everyone has to follow or be left behind. I've mentioned this in another comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30760146 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30760146
philosopher1234 5y ago
Falsifiability doesn't govern truth. If I claim you felt angry when typing this, can I falsify it?
- msla 5y ago
  What do non-falsifiable statements like that lead to? Where does the discussion go from there?
  - philosopher1234 5y ago
    You can make persuasive arguments about non-falsifiable points. Just because you can't form a proof or completely demolish an argument doesn't mean its uninteresting. Much of the social sciences, politics, or the real world in general relies on useful but non-falsifiable argument. If you confine yourself to falsifiability, you will never be able to understand people.
    - preseinger 5y ago
      > You can make persuasive arguments about non-falsifiable points. You actually can't. Like, you can make _arguments_ based on non-falsifiable points. But if the points aren't falsifiable, then there's nowhere for the discussion to go. How can I respond to them? What can I do to counter your arguments? Nothing. It's dull.

It is time intensive but not particularly hard to collect data from job postings and types of exits start-ups eventually make. I find it hard to get a good quick estimation since it is hard not to think of key examples that fit my personal expectations.

smegsicle 5y ago

it's nihilistic if you find meaning in microservices, and cynical if you don't think there's a weird tech VC bubble..

throwaway894345 5y ago
I think it's pretty absurd that you could in/validate many startup hypotheses with only a few hundred grand. You can maybe pay for two engineers (plus overhead) working for a year for that price, but you'll also need someone to do your accounting, legal, product, etc work.

javajosh 5y ago

Generally agree, but it's not cynicism, it's pessimism. Specifically about human nature - e.g. that people will encourage complexity simply to protect their jobs. I think, at worst, people will NOT make an extra effort to reduce complexity. A sin, but a small one in the scheme of things.

Gigachad 5y ago
I don’t think any programmers are worried about job security right now. But I would say that having advanced and shiny tech is a very compelling feature to a job. I’m seeing generic Wordpress/php agencies really struggle to retain developers because no one wants to work on wordpress or php because it’s not a long term career. So places which do the exact same websites in Rails and React are doing better because even though wordpress might be faster and easier, you have to pay people more than you would if you have cool tech.
- javajosh 5y ago
  I feel like we're on the brink of nuclear war, and I'm thinking about asymptotic behavior of webapp stacks...and I'm okay with that! I would guess that both PHP and Rails/React (and Java, C#, Python) folk will have all the work they can stomach, if they can stomach it. Consider how in-demand COBOL programmers are these days!
  - Gigachad 5y ago
    >Consider how in-demand COBOL programmers are these days! I keep hearing this but I have only ever heard bad things from the people who work there. Considering how in demand all developers are right now I wouldn't even think of getting in to some obsolete tech. You'd have to pay me enough to retire quickly.
Nextgrid 5y ago
I don't believe it's malice per-se. The market sets the tone and everyone has to follow or be left behind. I've mentioned this in another comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30760146 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30760146

philosopher1234 5y ago

Falsifiability doesn't govern truth. If I claim you felt angry when typing this, can I falsify it?

msla 5y ago
What do non-falsifiable statements like that lead to? Where does the discussion go from there?
- philosopher1234 5y ago
  You can make persuasive arguments about non-falsifiable points. Just because you can't form a proof or completely demolish an argument doesn't mean its uninteresting. Much of the social sciences, politics, or the real world in general relies on useful but non-falsifiable argument. If you confine yourself to falsifiability, you will never be able to understand people.
  - preseinger 5y ago
    > You can make persuasive arguments about non-falsifiable points. You actually can't. Like, you can make _arguments_ based on non-falsifiable points. But if the points aren't falsifiable, then there's nowhere for the discussion to go. How can I respond to them? What can I do to counter your arguments? Nothing. It's dull.