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The next paradigm of Nuclear arms is going to be on the defense side. If nation (whether nuclear armed or not) can parry ICBMs with close to 100% certainty, the
by systemvoltage 5y ago
The next paradigm of Nuclear arms is going to be on the defense side. If nation (whether nuclear armed or not) can parry ICBMs with close to 100% certainty, the entire game theory of Nuclear arms falls apart.
- throwaway894345 5y agoCan nations effectively parry ICBMs with anywhere close to 100% certainty? I assume ICBMs aren't created equal, and at a certain point you can presumably just throw more volume at the problem and overwhelm defenses (depends on the economics of defensive systems vs ICBMs).
- jacquesm 5y agoBut you never get to 100%, so this is not a useful thing to mention. You could get 99%, then just add some more re-entry vehicles on the bus and call it a day, it's like perfect security for websites, you have to get everything they only have to get something. And they always do. Starwars failed for a pretty good reason, the numbers just don't work out to the advantage of the defenders. The best way to defend against nukes is to make sure they don't make it off the launchpad/sub.
- itslennysfault 5y agoYeeeeah, that ship has sailed. Look up hypersonic missiles. China and the US have both tested them already, and there is basically no hopes of a counter measure that I'm aware of.
- systemvoltage 5y agoI was going to mention that. I don't think there is any violation of Physics or Engineering principles that prevents one from developing counter hypersonic missile measures. My guess is that it is already under research (Laser!?). SpaceX's Starlink program has a military component to it and no one can say for sure, but the CTO of Starlink was a 4-star general heading US Space Force until 2021.
- postalrat 5y agoEven Doctor Manhattan couldn't catch them all.