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What is the cost of 8 million refuges in EU? (since you are focusing on cost) Russia is not the only oil and gas supplier

by qaq 5y ago

parkingrift 5y ago
What you are suggesting here is equivalent to blowing up a bridge and then suggesting that there are other ways to cross a river. Yes, there are other oil and gas suppliers. No, Germany and the EU cannot just suddenly switch. Fools for relying on Russian energy in the first place.
- qaq 5y ago
  They can't suddenly switch 100% they can start shifting oil fairly quickly.
  - parkingrift 5y ago
    It depends on your definition of "fairly quickly." Within months to years, yes. Within weeks, no.
    - qaq 5y ago
      Within months they can switch economically meaningful amount
- aksss 5y ago
  “Fools for relying on Russian energy in the first place.” This is a tough one. Yes, but at same time there was and still is a long term benefit to normalizing Russia’s identity as a “Western” power. That’s a long haul project and Germany/EU wasn’t wrong to engage economically with them, mutually, to that end. Given the history of Germany/Russia in particular, this mutual dependence is arguably working exactly as it was intended - cooling impulses. Arguably an error to become strategically dependent upon a resource pool you’re not capable of securing for yourself when the chips are down but hasn’t that ever been Germany’s post-industrial challenge? Much to the world’s relief, I might add.
  - parkingrift 5y ago
    >This is a tough one. Yes, but at same time there was and still is a long term benefit to normalizing Russia’s identity as a “Western” power. That’s a long haul project and Germany/EU wasn’t wrong to engage economically with them, mutually, to that end. Engaging economically is one thing, dependence on Russian energy is another. It was absolutely insane post-2014 to have an energy strategy with such a profound dependency on Russia. One US President warned Europe and Germany of such a dependence, and they quite literally laughed at him to his face. At minimum Germany and the EU could have taken measures to ensure optionality in the event that Russia did as Russia has historically done. >Given the history of Germany/Russia in particular, this mutual dependence is arguably working exactly as it was intended - cooling impulses. It does not appear (to me) that Russia has cooled their impulses at all.
    - aksss 5y ago
      I mean in relation to each other, Germany and Russia.
DocTomoe 5y ago
Differently from earlier refugee waves, the Ukraininan one may well be a net positive for host countries. I keep hearing stories by refugee helpers that these people want to work, to the point where they refuse host locations if there is no infrastructure (and no jobs) nearby.

What is the cost of 8 million refuges in EU? (since you are focusing on cost) Russia is not the only oil and gas supplier

by qaq 5y ago

What is the cost of 8 million refuges in EU? (since you are focusing on cost) Russia is not the only oil and gas supplier

parkingrift 5y ago

What you are suggesting here is equivalent to blowing up a bridge and then suggesting that there are other ways to cross a river. Yes, there are other oil and gas suppliers. No, Germany and the EU cannot just suddenly switch. Fools for relying on Russian energy in the first place.

qaq 5y ago
They can't suddenly switch 100% they can start shifting oil fairly quickly.
- parkingrift 5y ago
  It depends on your definition of "fairly quickly." Within months to years, yes. Within weeks, no.
  - qaq 5y ago
    Within months they can switch economically meaningful amount
aksss 5y ago
“Fools for relying on Russian energy in the first place.” This is a tough one. Yes, but at same time there was and still is a long term benefit to normalizing Russia’s identity as a “Western” power. That’s a long haul project and Germany/EU wasn’t wrong to engage economically with them, mutually, to that end. Given the history of Germany/Russia in particular, this mutual dependence is arguably working exactly as it was intended - cooling impulses. Arguably an error to become strategically dependent upon a resource pool you’re not capable of securing for yourself when the chips are down but hasn’t that ever been Germany’s post-industrial challenge? Much to the world’s relief, I might add.
- parkingrift 5y ago
  >This is a tough one. Yes, but at same time there was and still is a long term benefit to normalizing Russia’s identity as a “Western” power. That’s a long haul project and Germany/EU wasn’t wrong to engage economically with them, mutually, to that end. Engaging economically is one thing, dependence on Russian energy is another. It was absolutely insane post-2014 to have an energy strategy with such a profound dependency on Russia. One US President warned Europe and Germany of such a dependence, and they quite literally laughed at him to his face. At minimum Germany and the EU could have taken measures to ensure optionality in the event that Russia did as Russia has historically done. >Given the history of Germany/Russia in particular, this mutual dependence is arguably working exactly as it was intended - cooling impulses. It does not appear (to me) that Russia has cooled their impulses at all.
  - aksss 5y ago
    I mean in relation to each other, Germany and Russia.

DocTomoe 5y ago

Differently from earlier refugee waves, the Ukraininan one may well be a net positive for host countries. I keep hearing stories by refugee helpers that these people want to work, to the point where they refuse host locations if there is no infrastructure (and no jobs) nearby.