4 ms·

> Property crimes declined in San Francisco during the first year of the pandemic, but rose 13% in 2021. There is an ongoing national narrative about how shopl

by slg 5y ago

> Property crimes declined in San Francisco during the first year of the pandemic, but rose 13% in 2021. There is an ongoing national narrative about how shoplifting and petty theft has been out of control and yet the numbers rarely back up this narrative. A two year stretch in which the numbers dropped then bounced back up by 13% is not "insane" by any stretch of the imagination.

gjsman-1000 5y ago
Is it really 13%, or... A. The city has incentive to hide the actual numbers[1], and B. Most business owners don't bother anymore with reporting, because what's the point? I'd say it's probably a combination of the above. Edit: [1]Because it is an election year. High crime looks bad.
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  > The city has incentive to hide the actual numbers... ... and cops have an incentive to overstate them.
  - gjsman-1000 5y ago
    Not really - as the article says, the cops are discouraged and it's not like there's a bounty per arrest. Overstating the numbers is a waste of time not accomplishing anything if true.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      Cops outright make shit up to win political points. For example: https://www.businessinsider.com/nypds-shake-shack-hoax-stop-taking-police-word-2020-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/nypds-shake-shack-hoax-stop-...
      - gjsman-1000 5y ago
        So some cops lied in New York about something unrelated... so they must be lying about well-documented phenomena in Los Angeles over an entirely different issue. Not only that, but they must be somehow incentivized to do so. I don't find that argument convincing.
        ceejayoz 5y ago
        Oh, LA's cops have bigger issues. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LASD_deputy_gangs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LASD_deputy_gangs There's a grim and extensive investigation at https://knock-la.com/tradition-of-violence-lasd-gang-history/ https://knock-la.com/tradition-of-violence-lasd-gang-history... of this.
      - marcinzm 5y ago
        Property crimes generally aren't reported by the police so it's not something the police could fudge. Now arrest rates they may lie about (read: arrest innocent people) to meet quotas.
  - colpabar 5y ago
    Do they? More crimes means a lower solved crime rate, which looks reflects poorly on the city's leadership.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      Police unions are frequently feuding with city leadership. As an example, the NYPD doxxed DiBlasio's daughter in revenge for his position on the George Floyd murder: https://www.newsweek.com/nypd-sergeants-benevolent-association-union-tweet-deleted-mayor-bill-de-blasio-daughter-1507750 https://www.newsweek.com/nypd-sergeants-benevolent-associati... Overstating/cherrypicking crimes is a frequently utilized PR tactic to fight attempts at police reform, budget cuts, etc.
      - Nomentatus 5y ago
        But the police in NYC used lots of spotsearches to boost both the crime rate (they discovered and so "solved" the crime at the same time) AND their crimes solved rate simultaneously. (Until the courts stopped them.) Only if both those stats go up together are the police incentivized to boost the crime rate.
        ceejayoz 5y ago
        That's why you pick specific stats that support your point, while pretending the others don't exist. Any time you see an oddly specific stat, you should question it a little. For example: https://twitter.com/dceiver/status/1493643563892150278 https://twitter.com/dceiver/status/1493643563892150278 "Shooting incidents are up 500% in an East Harlem precinct compared with last year" winds up describing going from one to six.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- kklimonda 5y ago
  Aren't most stores insured, and if so wouldn't this data be available due to insurance claims?
  - gjsman-1000 5y ago
    Businesses don't file insurance claims when the losses are too small to justify paying the insurance premium, plus taking the time to file a police report and insurance report. Also, the losses are so frequent that they add up quickly - and the amount of effort required to file reports and claims for all of them is not economically viable.
QuikAccount 5y ago
I don't believe the data is accurate simply because most crime of this level is not reported because the victims accurately believe nothing will happen.
- IfOnlyYouKnew 5y ago
  That idea-whatever its merits—wouldn’t explain statistics holding steady during a rise in actual crimes. Unless people are drastically less likely to report crime than in the past, for which there is zero evidence. It’s just used when actual data doesn’t confirm what people want to be true.
  - QuikAccount 5y ago
    > It’s just used when actual data doesn’t confirm what people want to be true. You don't have to take my word for it. There are studies to support that property crime goes severely under-reported[1]. Also, people are drastically less likely to report crime when it is obviously nothing will happen and it cost more than the value of whatever was taken. Walmart loses millions on theft every year, they could stop it but stopping it would cost more than doing nothing. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about...
    - fitblipper 5y ago
      I think the point is, since the numbers don't show an uptick in property crime while others are reporting an increase, the only explanation for that is for the reporting of property crime to decrease at the exact same time as the actual crime increases. Why would that happen?
      - QuikAccount 5y ago
        The article itself gives a few plausible reasons with police blaming the DA and the DA blaming the police. > Some former police officials said in interviews that officers don’t feel it is worth making an arrest in low-level cases because they assume the district attorney won’t file charges. They also point to a statewide ballot measure passed in 2014—Proposition 47—that raised the dollar amount at which theft can be prosecuted as a felony from $400 to $950. > Mr. Boudin has pointed the finger back at the police, arguing that the certainty of arrest is low in San Francisco compared with other cities. More consistent arrests of criminals, he has said, would be a more powerful deterrent than the length of prison sentences. Regardless of what side you take, combine an increase in crime with the fact it is unlikely that people will be prosecuted or arrested and it seems reasonable to think that could lead people to just deciding it isn't worth the time to report the crime.
awillen 5y ago
The numbers are based off what gets reported. Nobody reports anything in San Francisco any more. It's subpar work on the part of the WSJ not to understand that, but when calling the police is a waste of time, the numbers aren't going to reflect reality.
- ryoshu 5y ago
  If you don't report the problem the problem won't get fixed. This is for social issues as well as software issues.
drewcoo 5y ago
2022 is an election year. Crime is a perennial wedge issue.

by slg 5y ago

gjsman-1000 5y ago

Is it really 13%, or... A. The city has incentive to hide the actual numbers[1], and B. Most business owners don't bother anymore with reporting, because what's the point? I'd say it's probably a combination of the above. Edit: [1]Because it is an election year. High crime looks bad.

ceejayoz 5y ago
> The city has incentive to hide the actual numbers... ... and cops have an incentive to overstate them.
- gjsman-1000 5y ago
  Not really - as the article says, the cops are discouraged and it's not like there's a bounty per arrest. Overstating the numbers is a waste of time not accomplishing anything if true.
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    Cops outright make shit up to win political points. For example: https://www.businessinsider.com/nypds-shake-shack-hoax-stop-taking-police-word-2020-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/nypds-shake-shack-hoax-stop-...
    - gjsman-1000 5y ago
      So some cops lied in New York about something unrelated... so they must be lying about well-documented phenomena in Los Angeles over an entirely different issue. Not only that, but they must be somehow incentivized to do so. I don't find that argument convincing.
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        Oh, LA's cops have bigger issues. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LASD_deputy_gangs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LASD_deputy_gangs There's a grim and extensive investigation at https://knock-la.com/tradition-of-violence-lasd-gang-history/ https://knock-la.com/tradition-of-violence-lasd-gang-history... of this.
    - marcinzm 5y ago
      Property crimes generally aren't reported by the police so it's not something the police could fudge. Now arrest rates they may lie about (read: arrest innocent people) to meet quotas.
- colpabar 5y ago
  Do they? More crimes means a lower solved crime rate, which looks reflects poorly on the city's leadership.
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    Police unions are frequently feuding with city leadership. As an example, the NYPD doxxed DiBlasio's daughter in revenge for his position on the George Floyd murder: https://www.newsweek.com/nypd-sergeants-benevolent-association-union-tweet-deleted-mayor-bill-de-blasio-daughter-1507750 https://www.newsweek.com/nypd-sergeants-benevolent-associati... Overstating/cherrypicking crimes is a frequently utilized PR tactic to fight attempts at police reform, budget cuts, etc.
    - Nomentatus 5y ago
      But the police in NYC used lots of spotsearches to boost both the crime rate (they discovered and so "solved" the crime at the same time) AND their crimes solved rate simultaneously. (Until the courts stopped them.) Only if both those stats go up together are the police incentivized to boost the crime rate.
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        That's why you pick specific stats that support your point, while pretending the others don't exist. Any time you see an oddly specific stat, you should question it a little. For example: https://twitter.com/dceiver/status/1493643563892150278 https://twitter.com/dceiver/status/1493643563892150278 "Shooting incidents are up 500% in an East Harlem precinct compared with last year" winds up describing going from one to six.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
kklimonda 5y ago
Aren't most stores insured, and if so wouldn't this data be available due to insurance claims?
- gjsman-1000 5y ago
  Businesses don't file insurance claims when the losses are too small to justify paying the insurance premium, plus taking the time to file a police report and insurance report. Also, the losses are so frequent that they add up quickly - and the amount of effort required to file reports and claims for all of them is not economically viable.

QuikAccount 5y ago

I don't believe the data is accurate simply because most crime of this level is not reported because the victims accurately believe nothing will happen.

IfOnlyYouKnew 5y ago
That idea-whatever its merits—wouldn’t explain statistics holding steady during a rise in actual crimes. Unless people are drastically less likely to report crime than in the past, for which there is zero evidence. It’s just used when actual data doesn’t confirm what people want to be true.
- QuikAccount 5y ago
  > It’s just used when actual data doesn’t confirm what people want to be true. You don't have to take my word for it. There are studies to support that property crime goes severely under-reported[1]. Also, people are drastically less likely to report crime when it is obviously nothing will happen and it cost more than the value of whatever was taken. Walmart loses millions on theft every year, they could stop it but stopping it would cost more than doing nothing. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about...
  - fitblipper 5y ago
    I think the point is, since the numbers don't show an uptick in property crime while others are reporting an increase, the only explanation for that is for the reporting of property crime to decrease at the exact same time as the actual crime increases. Why would that happen?
    - QuikAccount 5y ago
      The article itself gives a few plausible reasons with police blaming the DA and the DA blaming the police. > Some former police officials said in interviews that officers don’t feel it is worth making an arrest in low-level cases because they assume the district attorney won’t file charges. They also point to a statewide ballot measure passed in 2014—Proposition 47—that raised the dollar amount at which theft can be prosecuted as a felony from $400 to $950. > Mr. Boudin has pointed the finger back at the police, arguing that the certainty of arrest is low in San Francisco compared with other cities. More consistent arrests of criminals, he has said, would be a more powerful deterrent than the length of prison sentences. Regardless of what side you take, combine an increase in crime with the fact it is unlikely that people will be prosecuted or arrested and it seems reasonable to think that could lead people to just deciding it isn't worth the time to report the crime.

awillen 5y ago

The numbers are based off what gets reported. Nobody reports anything in San Francisco any more. It's subpar work on the part of the WSJ not to understand that, but when calling the police is a waste of time, the numbers aren't going to reflect reality.

ryoshu 5y ago
If you don't report the problem the problem won't get fixed. This is for social issues as well as software issues.

drewcoo 5y ago

2022 is an election year. Crime is a perennial wedge issue.