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I think that's a bit common knowledge to anybody watching this space: state department types are basically obsessed with protecting Taiwan, as a subset of the w

I think that's a bit common knowledge to anybody watching this space: state department types are basically obsessed with protecting Taiwan, as a subset of the whole China-US rivalry thing (that they are also obsessed with). A big pillar of the neurosis over the issue is that China is reaching the point where the US would have a great deal of difficulty stopping them. So the whole concept of deterring China from military action is not so much about convincing them they would lose, tactically, but rather that the sanctions/global pariah status would be so apocalyptic that they would wish they had lost. Everybody who has entertained that line of thought would see Ukraine as a golden opportunity to prove to an audience of one (Xi Jiping) that trying something with Taiwan would be a terrible idea. Also, while sanctions hurt both sides, Russia is a pretty small global player, so it's way less painful to use them as an object lesson, than to entertain the possibility of doing the same kind of mutual economic bloodletting with China.

smackeyacky 5y ago
Taiwan seems entirely different to me. The US isn't reliant on Russian exports for anything. They are reliant on both Taiwan and China continuing to produce pretty much everything. I don't think it's possible for the US to ban imports from China in any meaningful way and any financial sanctions would have too many US companies at risk. It's in the US interest to decrease their direct reliance on Taiwan simply from a risk management sense. You can see this happening now with investments in chip foundries coming back to the US and to a lesser extent Europe. I'm not sure I entirely agree with Trevor Noah's comedy angle that the location and colour of the people involved in Ukraine have elicited a much more emotional response than somewhere like Syria, but there is an element of truth in it.
- pasabagi 5y ago
  > They are reliant on both Taiwan and China continuing to produce pretty much everything. I think security-apparatus people don't really think like this. A good example is Australia's recent falling out with China. Australia is one of the most China-dependent economies in the world, and the dependency is not particularly reciprocal. Australia exports ores, and China can ultimately pay more for ores from elsewhere without a huge economic hit. Yet, because of the Australian security zeitgeist, we've seen a stream of fairly bellicose and occasionally unwise statements from Australian representatives, which have resulted in the ever-sensitive Chinese going completely ballistic and imposing sanctions. To give an example of how nutty military types will get if you leave them in a room together, I've heard people openly discuss and advocate war with China[0], in order to maintain US hegemony. From a security perspective, economics is for donkeys, and humans are collateral damage - their job is to enhance their state's strategic position. If they take over the state apparatus, well, look at what Russia is doing. Anything can happen. > Trevor Noah's comedy .. location and colour To be honest, I think that was explicit. Look at how the EU is responding to the refugee crisis. [0] https://soundcloud.com/fairbank-center/destined-for-war-can-america-and-china-escape-thucydides-trap-with-graham-allison https://soundcloud.com/fairbank-center/destined-for-war-can-... (this character Oriana Skylar Mastro is both obviously an dangerous imbecile, is regularly publishing in magazines like foreign affairs, and is an employee of the US military).
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everdrive 5y ago
I think it's certainly true that people are keeping Taiwan in mind with regard to this, but I think you're underestimating the risk of nuclear conflict, and the specter of larger war in Europe. The US certainly has more than Taiwan on their mind here.

smackeyacky 5y ago

Taiwan seems entirely different to me. The US isn't reliant on Russian exports for anything. They are reliant on both Taiwan and China continuing to produce pretty much everything. I don't think it's possible for the US to ban imports from China in any meaningful way and any financial sanctions would have too many US companies at risk. It's in the US interest to decrease their direct reliance on Taiwan simply from a risk management sense. You can see this happening now with investments in chip foundries coming back to the US and to a lesser extent Europe. I'm not sure I entirely agree with Trevor Noah's comedy angle that the location and colour of the people involved in Ukraine have elicited a much more emotional response than somewhere like Syria, but there is an element of truth in it.

pasabagi 5y ago
> They are reliant on both Taiwan and China continuing to produce pretty much everything. I think security-apparatus people don't really think like this. A good example is Australia's recent falling out with China. Australia is one of the most China-dependent economies in the world, and the dependency is not particularly reciprocal. Australia exports ores, and China can ultimately pay more for ores from elsewhere without a huge economic hit. Yet, because of the Australian security zeitgeist, we've seen a stream of fairly bellicose and occasionally unwise statements from Australian representatives, which have resulted in the ever-sensitive Chinese going completely ballistic and imposing sanctions. To give an example of how nutty military types will get if you leave them in a room together, I've heard people openly discuss and advocate war with China[0], in order to maintain US hegemony. From a security perspective, economics is for donkeys, and humans are collateral damage - their job is to enhance their state's strategic position. If they take over the state apparatus, well, look at what Russia is doing. Anything can happen. > Trevor Noah's comedy .. location and colour To be honest, I think that was explicit. Look at how the EU is responding to the refugee crisis. [0] https://soundcloud.com/fairbank-center/destined-for-war-can-america-and-china-escape-thucydides-trap-with-graham-allison https://soundcloud.com/fairbank-center/destined-for-war-can-... (this character Oriana Skylar Mastro is both obviously an dangerous imbecile, is regularly publishing in magazines like foreign affairs, and is an employee of the US military).
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everdrive 5y ago

I think it's certainly true that people are keeping Taiwan in mind with regard to this, but I think you're underestimating the risk of nuclear conflict, and the specter of larger war in Europe. The US certainly has more than Taiwan on their mind here.