4 ms·

We don’t know what will happen in Russia after Putin, or in Europe, which currently finds itself in a romantic phase. But we shouldn’t make the same mistakes as

We don’t know what will happen in Russia after Putin, or in Europe, which currently finds itself in a romantic phase. But we shouldn’t make the same mistakes as in 1989. Back then, we thought the East would change dramatically, but not the West. Now, Russia is going to change dramatically. But so will we. This quote seems insightful to me. Germany suddenly realising that the road to peace through mercantilism won't work with the modern Russian state is the biggest change in foreign policy I've seen in the last 30 years. It's significance and suddenness will be noted as a real turning point in Europe. As will Germany deciding it is time to re-arm.

mrjangles 5y ago
> Germany suddenly realizing that the road to peace through mercantilism.... I'm pretty sure what he is saying is that Europe and Germany have realized that the road to peace through free markets won't work and that they are returning to a mercantilist/socialist approach - both by strengthening the bonds between government and business, and by using business and trade restrictions as a weapon.
- hakre 5y ago
  Germany realized that for sure, but the meaning is different: The period of peace enforced due to loosing the war is over. All good things count up to three like the colors in the flag.
thomassmith65 5y ago
The interview is packed with insightful statements. Eg: I think the strong sanctions from the U.S. have less to do with saving Ukraine. America is more strategic than it is emotional. By imposing the sanctions, they want to save Taiwan by showing China the price of an intervention. I wish he'd spoken a little more about Taiwan, though maybe it's outside his area of expertise. America wants China to side against Russia, but it would be convenient for China if there were the precedent of Russia annexing Crimea.
- mandeepj 5y ago
  > I think the strong sanctions from the U.S. have less to do with saving Ukraine. America is more strategic than it is emotional. By imposing the sanctions, they want to save Taiwan by showing China the price of an intervention. Not really. Here's an insight, if you will What happens now is a straight result of your action. But, what will happen in the future - is an implication of your current action - and that's interpretation of Taiwan invasion for China
- pasabagi 5y ago
  I think that's a bit common knowledge to anybody watching this space: state department types are basically obsessed with protecting Taiwan, as a subset of the whole China-US rivalry thing (that they are also obsessed with). A big pillar of the neurosis over the issue is that China is reaching the point where the US would have a great deal of difficulty stopping them. So the whole concept of deterring China from military action is not so much about convincing them they would lose, tactically, but rather that the sanctions/global pariah status would be so apocalyptic that they would wish they had lost. Everybody who has entertained that line of thought would see Ukraine as a golden opportunity to prove to an audience of one (Xi Jiping) that trying something with Taiwan would be a terrible idea. Also, while sanctions hurt both sides, Russia is a pretty small global player, so it's way less painful to use them as an object lesson, than to entertain the possibility of doing the same kind of mutual economic bloodletting with China.
  - smackeyacky 5y ago
    Taiwan seems entirely different to me. The US isn't reliant on Russian exports for anything. They are reliant on both Taiwan and China continuing to produce pretty much everything. I don't think it's possible for the US to ban imports from China in any meaningful way and any financial sanctions would have too many US companies at risk. It's in the US interest to decrease their direct reliance on Taiwan simply from a risk management sense. You can see this happening now with investments in chip foundries coming back to the US and to a lesser extent Europe. I'm not sure I entirely agree with Trevor Noah's comedy angle that the location and colour of the people involved in Ukraine have elicited a much more emotional response than somewhere like Syria, but there is an element of truth in it.

mrjangles 5y ago

> Germany suddenly realizing that the road to peace through mercantilism.... I'm pretty sure what he is saying is that Europe and Germany have realized that the road to peace through free markets won't work and that they are returning to a mercantilist/socialist approach - both by strengthening the bonds between government and business, and by using business and trade restrictions as a weapon.

hakre 5y ago
Germany realized that for sure, but the meaning is different: The period of peace enforced due to loosing the war is over. All good things count up to three like the colors in the flag.

thomassmith65 5y ago

The interview is packed with insightful statements. Eg: I think the strong sanctions from the U.S. have less to do with saving Ukraine. America is more strategic than it is emotional. By imposing the sanctions, they want to save Taiwan by showing China the price of an intervention. I wish he'd spoken a little more about Taiwan, though maybe it's outside his area of expertise. America wants China to side against Russia, but it would be convenient for China if there were the precedent of Russia annexing Crimea.

mandeepj 5y ago
> I think the strong sanctions from the U.S. have less to do with saving Ukraine. America is more strategic than it is emotional. By imposing the sanctions, they want to save Taiwan by showing China the price of an intervention. Not really. Here's an insight, if you will What happens now is a straight result of your action. But, what will happen in the future - is an implication of your current action - and that's interpretation of Taiwan invasion for China
pasabagi 5y ago
I think that's a bit common knowledge to anybody watching this space: state department types are basically obsessed with protecting Taiwan, as a subset of the whole China-US rivalry thing (that they are also obsessed with). A big pillar of the neurosis over the issue is that China is reaching the point where the US would have a great deal of difficulty stopping them. So the whole concept of deterring China from military action is not so much about convincing them they would lose, tactically, but rather that the sanctions/global pariah status would be so apocalyptic that they would wish they had lost. Everybody who has entertained that line of thought would see Ukraine as a golden opportunity to prove to an audience of one (Xi Jiping) that trying something with Taiwan would be a terrible idea. Also, while sanctions hurt both sides, Russia is a pretty small global player, so it's way less painful to use them as an object lesson, than to entertain the possibility of doing the same kind of mutual economic bloodletting with China.
- smackeyacky 5y ago
  Taiwan seems entirely different to me. The US isn't reliant on Russian exports for anything. They are reliant on both Taiwan and China continuing to produce pretty much everything. I don't think it's possible for the US to ban imports from China in any meaningful way and any financial sanctions would have too many US companies at risk. It's in the US interest to decrease their direct reliance on Taiwan simply from a risk management sense. You can see this happening now with investments in chip foundries coming back to the US and to a lesser extent Europe. I'm not sure I entirely agree with Trevor Noah's comedy angle that the location and colour of the people involved in Ukraine have elicited a much more emotional response than somewhere like Syria, but there is an element of truth in it.