10 ms·

Ivan Krastev on Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

120 points by ivank 5y ago

mwattsun 5y ago
This is an incredibly interesting article that everyone interested in Putin's state of mind will enjoy Edit: I made a list of some assertions made so I can cross check some of them: - The West doesn't understand that Crimea is Russian - His messianism comes from being in power for 20 years in an authoritarian state, nobody dares to contradict him - He's created a system, he's become the system himself, and he can’t imagine that the entire country doesn’t reflect that - He can’t imagine there being anybody who could be an adequate successor - He has to solve all problems himself for as long as he is alive - Putin believes Russia isn't a country in the standard sense; it is a kind of historic, 1,000-year-old body - He's very intelligent and quick, forthright, confrontative. Sarcastic when speaking with someone from the West - Obama put women in charge of Russia policy. He thinks that an intentional attempt to humiliate him - He is obsessed with the hypocrisy of the West - He wants to teach the West a lesson. He wants us to know he can do the things we do too, even if he hates us for it - He is outraged that the annexation of the Crimea has been compared with Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938 - He thinks all and any enemies of eternal Russia must be Nazis - He is constantly speaking of betrayal and deceit - Western media has contributed to creating a false image of Putin ---- they say that Putin is corrupt ---- they say that Putin is a cynical gambler, a trickster ---- they say that Putin is somebody who is extremely strategic and tactical ----(Article describes why these are wrong) - He really believes what he says - He's obsessed with what happened to Gadhafi. He wasn't supposed to become president again after Medvedev, but did so to prevent that from happening to him - Putin and the KGB didn’t understand why The Soviet Union collapsed overnight without a war, without an invasion. It was their job to protect it. They failed. He has a strong feeling of guilt - He sees this as reunification of Russia and Ukraine, like East and West Germany - He's become the father of Ukraine. By his actions he vastly magnified Ukrainian national identity - Now, he finds himself in a situation that we know from Russian literature, when the father says to his son: I have created you, but now I must kill you - The myth of the Soviet Union and the heroic fight against the Nazis is not, in fact, embodied by Putin, but by Zelenskyy - The Russian elite was perhaps taken by surprise to an even greater degree than we were in the West. And I think that - The American government’s radical approach of making its intelligence information public helped to destroy Putin’s narrative that Russia is a victim - Our world has changed. We used to be in a postwar world, now we are in a prewar world - Ukrainians are even prepared to let their own state founder as a way of gaining an identity - It is a situation like in the 19th century. Russia as a classic imperial power. And Ukraine in an anti-colonialist fight against it. - He believes that Russia needs the men and women of Ukraine to survive in the new world. Population decline is hitting Russia hard. It’s not about the territory of Ukraine, but about the Ukrainian people. - It is said that he has been strongly influenced by the memoirs of General Anton Denikin, one of the leading officers in the White Army, which was defeated by the Bolsheviks in the civil war of the 1920s. In the speech in which he declared war on Ukraine, Putin also attacked Russia’s Soviet legacy for the first time. Lenin, he says, was the one who created Ukraine. It was the speech of a nationalist, of an anti-Bolshevik. - If Putin yields, it’s over for him. So, he has to escalate in order to force the Ukrainians to capitulate - Putin managed to put an end to Swedish neutrality and German pacifism. He triggered solidarity and resilience in the West - Whatever happens, and this is why it’s all so interesting: There is no path back to the way things were. Things are the way they are. And we don’t know where it will lead us. - By imposing the such strong sanctions the US wants to save Taiwan by showing China the price of an intervention - The world of globalization and free trade, in which the economy was only interested in bottom lines and not in politics, will soon be over - Russia is going to change dramatically. But so will we
- helge9210 5y ago
  > Russia isn't a country in the standard sense; it is a kind of historic, 1,000-year-old body Without Ukraine under control this is reduced to a mere 300 years (since 1721).
- attentive 5y ago
  > - Now, he finds himself in a situation that we know from Russian literature, when the father says to his son: I have created you, but now I must kill you Actually that's a quote from ukrainian author (Gogol) depicting historical events in Ukraine in Taras Bulba [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taras_Bulba https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taras_Bulba
- estaseuropano 5y ago
  Your summary/points looks as if the things listed are the authors view when hr is rather ascribing those views to Putin. E.g. whether Crimea is Russian, Ukrainian or something else will get you the same diverse answer as the questions what Tibet or Kashmir belong to. It depends on whether you ask a nationalist/revisionist Russian, a Ukrainian, a Crimean Tartar, a French politician, etc.
  - mwattsun 5y ago
    I was attempting to describe the assertions of Ivan Krastev
- hidudeurcool 5y ago
halotrope 5y ago
This is a fantastic interview. Full of incisive observations, eloquently presented. Along the lines of this historically contextualized analysis I can also recommend the PBS Frontline interviews with Julia Ioffe [0,1] which are similarly captivating and insightful. 0: https://youtu.be/kSNo2FPQDQw https://youtu.be/kSNo2FPQDQw 1: https://youtu.be/b1HWNcLDK88 https://youtu.be/b1HWNcLDK88
- belter 5y ago
  Great resources. Thanks for sharing. PBS is always a pleasure for the mind.
- syspec 5y ago
  Really great stuff, just watched and loved both... have any other other recommendations?
rramadass 5y ago
Good insightful interview. I suggest people listen to Putin's old/new long-form interviews on Youtube (in particular from Vesti's Soloviev) to understand his motivations. You don't have to agree with it but it is most necessary to understand where he is coming from if we are to solve the current and future problems with Putin. The following two quotes from him gives you some insight; * In a Vesti interview (2014?) he says something like Do we actually need a World without Russia? He simply will not allow Russia to be demoted to a third-rate and insignificant country and will use any means necessary to prevent it. * In the Feb 24, 2022 address he says this; The Paralysis of Power and Will is the first step towards complete Degradation and Oblivion. We lost confidence for only one moment, but it was enough to disrupt the balance of forces in the World. This tells you everything you need to know about his mindset starting from the fall of the USSR. The West's propaganda has been so successful that most people don't even try to find-out and understand the Russian pov. It is also the case that the current Ukraine conflict is a result of the geopolitical game between NATO/US/EU/UK and Russia where while the latter is the naked aggressor, the former is equally to blame for using Ukraine as a pawn, full-well knowing what the consequences would be. The result is a) the overt devastation/suffering of the Ukrainians which will soon be followed by covert devastation/suffering of the Russians once the sanctions start to bite b) the increase in the instability of "World Order" in all Economic, Financial, Political and Military aspects. Every country on the planet will be affected in one way or another.
- poushkar 5y ago
  It's not about NATO as much as it's Putin's wet dream to restore the Russian Empire. This isn't even something new: if you, and many others who talk about "understanding Russia" (btw, there is a term for it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putinversteher https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putinversteher) were paying attention in the past 20 years - just like most of Eastern European and Baltic countries did - you would understand why this argument is funny. Actually, it's not funny - it's becoming increasingly annoying to hear it repeated. And it's not a surprise it mostly comes from pro-Russian countries like Serbia, Hungary, and India.
  - rramadass 5y ago
majkinetor 5y ago
https://archive.is/mpyvH https://archive.is/mpyvH
slezyr 5y ago
> Or that the attack on Kyiv began with the destruction of the television tower just as NATO attacked the television tower in Belgrade in 1999? No, an attack on the tower[1st March] happened after the most significant attacks[26th Febrary] on Kyiv. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)#26_February https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)#26_Febru...
- codezero 5y ago
  I suspect the implication here is that this was done because the initial attack took longer than the expected three days of easy haul. It was a reaction meant to send a message, but I don't know, such a thing should probably have been clarified by the author.
smackeyacky 5y ago
We don’t know what will happen in Russia after Putin, or in Europe, which currently finds itself in a romantic phase. But we shouldn’t make the same mistakes as in 1989. Back then, we thought the East would change dramatically, but not the West. Now, Russia is going to change dramatically. But so will we. This quote seems insightful to me. Germany suddenly realising that the road to peace through mercantilism won't work with the modern Russian state is the biggest change in foreign policy I've seen in the last 30 years. It's significance and suddenness will be noted as a real turning point in Europe. As will Germany deciding it is time to re-arm.
- mrjangles 5y ago
  > Germany suddenly realizing that the road to peace through mercantilism.... I'm pretty sure what he is saying is that Europe and Germany have realized that the road to peace through free markets won't work and that they are returning to a mercantilist/socialist approach - both by strengthening the bonds between government and business, and by using business and trade restrictions as a weapon.
  - hakre 5y ago
    Germany realized that for sure, but the meaning is different: The period of peace enforced due to loosing the war is over. All good things count up to three like the colors in the flag.
- thomassmith65 5y ago
  The interview is packed with insightful statements. Eg: I think the strong sanctions from the U.S. have less to do with saving Ukraine. America is more strategic than it is emotional. By imposing the sanctions, they want to save Taiwan by showing China the price of an intervention. I wish he'd spoken a little more about Taiwan, though maybe it's outside his area of expertise. America wants China to side against Russia, but it would be convenient for China if there were the precedent of Russia annexing Crimea.
  - mandeepj 5y ago

120 points by ivank 5y ago

This is an incredibly interesting article that everyone interested in Putin's state of mind will enjoy Edit: I made a list of some assertions made so I can cross check some of them: - The West doesn't understand that Crimea is Russian - His messianism comes from being in power for 20 years in an authoritarian state, nobody dares to contradict him - He's created a system, he's become the system himself, and he can’t imagine that the entire country doesn’t reflect that - He can’t imagine there being anybody who could be an adequate successor - He has to solve all problems himself for as long as he is alive - Putin believes Russia isn't a country in the standard sense; it is a kind of historic, 1,000-year-old body - He's very intelligent and quick, forthright, confrontative. Sarcastic when speaking with someone from the West - Obama put women in charge of Russia policy. He thinks that an intentional attempt to humiliate him - He is obsessed with the hypocrisy of the West - He wants to teach the West a lesson. He wants us to know he can do the things we do too, even if he hates us for it - He is outraged that the annexation of the Crimea has been compared with Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938 - He thinks all and any enemies of eternal Russia must be Nazis - He is constantly speaking of betrayal and deceit - Western media has contributed to creating a false image of Putin ---- they say that Putin is corrupt ---- they say that Putin is a cynical gambler, a trickster ---- they say that Putin is somebody who is extremely strategic and tactical ----(Article describes why these are wrong) - He really believes what he says - He's obsessed with what happened to Gadhafi. He wasn't supposed to become president again after Medvedev, but did so to prevent that from happening to him - Putin and the KGB didn’t understand why The Soviet Union collapsed overnight without a war, without an invasion. It was their job to protect it. They failed. He has a strong feeling of guilt - He sees this as reunification of Russia and Ukraine, like East and West Germany - He's become the father of Ukraine. By his actions he vastly magnified Ukrainian national identity - Now, he finds himself in a situation that we know from Russian literature, when the father says to his son: I have created you, but now I must kill you - The myth of the Soviet Union and the heroic fight against the Nazis is not, in fact, embodied by Putin, but by Zelenskyy - The Russian elite was perhaps taken by surprise to an even greater degree than we were in the West. And I think that - The American government’s radical approach of making its intelligence information public helped to destroy Putin’s narrative that Russia is a victim - Our world has changed. We used to be in a postwar world, now we are in a prewar world - Ukrainians are even prepared to let their own state founder as a way of gaining an identity - It is a situation like in the 19th century. Russia as a classic imperial power. And Ukraine in an anti-colonialist fight against it. - He believes that Russia needs the men and women of Ukraine to survive in the new world. Population decline is hitting Russia hard. It’s not about the territory of Ukraine, but about the Ukrainian people. - It is said that he has been strongly influenced by the memoirs of General Anton Denikin, one of the leading officers in the White Army, which was defeated by the Bolsheviks in the civil war of the 1920s. In the speech in which he declared war on Ukraine, Putin also attacked Russia’s Soviet legacy for the first time. Lenin, he says, was the one who created Ukraine. It was the speech of a nationalist, of an anti-Bolshevik. - If Putin yields, it’s over for him. So, he has to escalate in order to force the Ukrainians to capitulate - Putin managed to put an end to Swedish neutrality and German pacifism. He triggered solidarity and resilience in the West - Whatever happens, and this is why it’s all so interesting: There is no path back to the way things were. Things are the way they are. And we don’t know where it will lead us. - By imposing the such strong sanctions the US wants to save Taiwan by showing China the price of an intervention - The world of globalization and free trade, in which the economy was only interested in bottom lines and not in politics, will soon be over - Russia is going to change dramatically. But so will we

helge9210 5y ago
> Russia isn't a country in the standard sense; it is a kind of historic, 1,000-year-old body Without Ukraine under control this is reduced to a mere 300 years (since 1721).
attentive 5y ago
> - Now, he finds himself in a situation that we know from Russian literature, when the father says to his son: I have created you, but now I must kill you Actually that's a quote from ukrainian author (Gogol) depicting historical events in Ukraine in Taras Bulba [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taras_Bulba https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taras_Bulba
estaseuropano 5y ago
Your summary/points looks as if the things listed are the authors view when hr is rather ascribing those views to Putin. E.g. whether Crimea is Russian, Ukrainian or something else will get you the same diverse answer as the questions what Tibet or Kashmir belong to. It depends on whether you ask a nationalist/revisionist Russian, a Ukrainian, a Crimean Tartar, a French politician, etc.
- mwattsun 5y ago
  I was attempting to describe the assertions of Ivan Krastev
hidudeurcool 5y ago

halotrope 5y ago

This is a fantastic interview. Full of incisive observations, eloquently presented. Along the lines of this historically contextualized analysis I can also recommend the PBS Frontline interviews with Julia Ioffe [0,1] which are similarly captivating and insightful. 0: https://youtu.be/kSNo2FPQDQw https://youtu.be/kSNo2FPQDQw 1: https://youtu.be/b1HWNcLDK88 https://youtu.be/b1HWNcLDK88

belter 5y ago
Great resources. Thanks for sharing. PBS is always a pleasure for the mind.
syspec 5y ago
Really great stuff, just watched and loved both... have any other other recommendations?

rramadass 5y ago

Good insightful interview. I suggest people listen to Putin's old/new long-form interviews on Youtube (in particular from Vesti's Soloviev) to understand his motivations. You don't have to agree with it but it is most necessary to understand where he is coming from if we are to solve the current and future problems with Putin. The following two quotes from him gives you some insight; * In a Vesti interview (2014?) he says something like Do we actually need a World without Russia? He simply will not allow Russia to be demoted to a third-rate and insignificant country and will use any means necessary to prevent it. * In the Feb 24, 2022 address he says this; The Paralysis of Power and Will is the first step towards complete Degradation and Oblivion. We lost confidence for only one moment, but it was enough to disrupt the balance of forces in the World. This tells you everything you need to know about his mindset starting from the fall of the USSR. The West's propaganda has been so successful that most people don't even try to find-out and understand the Russian pov. It is also the case that the current Ukraine conflict is a result of the geopolitical game between NATO/US/EU/UK and Russia where while the latter is the naked aggressor, the former is equally to blame for using Ukraine as a pawn, full-well knowing what the consequences would be. The result is a) the overt devastation/suffering of the Ukrainians which will soon be followed by covert devastation/suffering of the Russians once the sanctions start to bite b) the increase in the instability of "World Order" in all Economic, Financial, Political and Military aspects. Every country on the planet will be affected in one way or another.

poushkar 5y ago
It's not about NATO as much as it's Putin's wet dream to restore the Russian Empire. This isn't even something new: if you, and many others who talk about "understanding Russia" (btw, there is a term for it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putinversteher https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putinversteher) were paying attention in the past 20 years - just like most of Eastern European and Baltic countries did - you would understand why this argument is funny. Actually, it's not funny - it's becoming increasingly annoying to hear it repeated. And it's not a surprise it mostly comes from pro-Russian countries like Serbia, Hungary, and India.
- rramadass 5y ago

majkinetor 5y ago

https://archive.is/mpyvH https://archive.is/mpyvH

slezyr 5y ago

> Or that the attack on Kyiv began with the destruction of the television tower just as NATO attacked the television tower in Belgrade in 1999? No, an attack on the tower[1st March] happened after the most significant attacks[26th Febrary] on Kyiv. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)#26_February https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)#26_Febru...

codezero 5y ago
I suspect the implication here is that this was done because the initial attack took longer than the expected three days of easy haul. It was a reaction meant to send a message, but I don't know, such a thing should probably have been clarified by the author.

smackeyacky 5y ago

We don’t know what will happen in Russia after Putin, or in Europe, which currently finds itself in a romantic phase. But we shouldn’t make the same mistakes as in 1989. Back then, we thought the East would change dramatically, but not the West. Now, Russia is going to change dramatically. But so will we. This quote seems insightful to me. Germany suddenly realising that the road to peace through mercantilism won't work with the modern Russian state is the biggest change in foreign policy I've seen in the last 30 years. It's significance and suddenness will be noted as a real turning point in Europe. As will Germany deciding it is time to re-arm.

mrjangles 5y ago
> Germany suddenly realizing that the road to peace through mercantilism.... I'm pretty sure what he is saying is that Europe and Germany have realized that the road to peace through free markets won't work and that they are returning to a mercantilist/socialist approach - both by strengthening the bonds between government and business, and by using business and trade restrictions as a weapon.
- hakre 5y ago
  Germany realized that for sure, but the meaning is different: The period of peace enforced due to loosing the war is over. All good things count up to three like the colors in the flag.
thomassmith65 5y ago
The interview is packed with insightful statements. Eg: I think the strong sanctions from the U.S. have less to do with saving Ukraine. America is more strategic than it is emotional. By imposing the sanctions, they want to save Taiwan by showing China the price of an intervention. I wish he'd spoken a little more about Taiwan, though maybe it's outside his area of expertise. America wants China to side against Russia, but it would be convenient for China if there were the precedent of Russia annexing Crimea.
- mandeepj 5y ago