Temperature is bounded to a positive values and it is sufficiently reasonable to at least try to look at temperature distribution as a log-normal distribution,

Temperature is bounded to a positive values and it is sufficiently reasonable to at least try to look at temperature distribution as a log-normal distribution, where logarithms of temperature are distributed normally. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution From this vantage point, bigger positive swings are more likely than bigger negative ones - because positive swings are in the range exp(logmean)..infinity and negative ones are in range 0..exp(logmean). Take a look at second picture in Wiipedia article. The value with CDF(x)=0.75 is about four times bigger for sigma=1 curve than value for CDF(x)=0.25. And I guess that distribution of temperature in Antarctica is more close to a log-normal distribution than distribution of temperature in, say, Houston or Cancun.