55 ms·

I think this glosses over the issues of land becoming more arid. Most of the western United States is struggling to deal with this and it seems likely that agr

I think this glosses over the issues of land becoming more arid. Most of the western United States is struggling to deal with this and it seems likely that agricultural output will decrease in these areas even if the land is not unusable by the standards of this article.

karlkatzke 5y ago
It also glosses over that arctic land isn’t usable for agriculture. There’s nowhere near enough fertile soil in former permafrost. The areas that did have fertile soil are now deserts or covered in salt water. It really comes off as disingenuous to me in that regard; it’s a quantitative analysis without any of the qualitative measures that are necessary.
- masklinn 5y ago
  > There’s nowhere near enough fertile soil in former permafrost. Not only that, former permafrost is highly unstable almost by definition: as soon as it starts melting it starts shifting. This is already starting to be an infrastructure issue, as roads and bridges built on/in permafrost degrade at very high rate when it thaws. And that's before considering the cool methane bombs. Nothing says stability like your field or house being replaced by a 40m deep crater. And then, obviously, global warming / permafrost melting doesn't magick a more reasonable insolation. Even ignoring soil quality factors, agricultural yields start degrading as you go further towards the poles because the seasons and sheer amount of sun are crap.
Y-bar 5y ago
Similarly. Where I live (Scandinavia) we have seen modest change in precipitation on a yearly basis, and if you look at our country as a singular unit. However, the when and where when looking more detailed into the numbers reveal that lowland/farmland gets drier while highlands get wetter. We now have yearly drought warnings due to this.
manholio 5y ago
A significant concern the author is not considering is soil salinity. Most of the coastal land is not easily defendable cities, but productive agricultural land. When sea level rise then the salty water infiltrates into the ground water and makes vast amounts of soil infertile, from what I understand a much larger area than the zone lost directly to flooding. This will destroy massive wealth and push rural farmers inland, in conflict with each other or the wild areas.

karlkatzke 5y ago

It also glosses over that arctic land isn’t usable for agriculture. There’s nowhere near enough fertile soil in former permafrost. The areas that did have fertile soil are now deserts or covered in salt water. It really comes off as disingenuous to me in that regard; it’s a quantitative analysis without any of the qualitative measures that are necessary.

masklinn 5y ago
> There’s nowhere near enough fertile soil in former permafrost. Not only that, former permafrost is highly unstable almost by definition: as soon as it starts melting it starts shifting. This is already starting to be an infrastructure issue, as roads and bridges built on/in permafrost degrade at very high rate when it thaws. And that's before considering the cool methane bombs. Nothing says stability like your field or house being replaced by a 40m deep crater. And then, obviously, global warming / permafrost melting doesn't magick a more reasonable insolation. Even ignoring soil quality factors, agricultural yields start degrading as you go further towards the poles because the seasons and sheer amount of sun are crap.

Y-bar 5y ago

Similarly. Where I live (Scandinavia) we have seen modest change in precipitation on a yearly basis, and if you look at our country as a singular unit. However, the when and where when looking more detailed into the numbers reveal that lowland/farmland gets drier while highlands get wetter. We now have yearly drought warnings due to this.

manholio 5y ago

A significant concern the author is not considering is soil salinity. Most of the coastal land is not easily defendable cities, but productive agricultural land. When sea level rise then the salty water infiltrates into the ground water and makes vast amounts of soil infertile, from what I understand a much larger area than the zone lost directly to flooding. This will destroy massive wealth and push rural farmers inland, in conflict with each other or the wild areas.