Yes, AI and/or commoditisation will take over. Programming will look more like collaboration with AI agents, and developers will be paid for creative insights,

Yes, AI and/or commoditisation will take over. Programming will look more like collaboration with AI agents, and developers will be paid for creative insights, not for grunt work. But not for a while. My personal estimate is 25 yrs +/-10. 50 yrs would be the absolute limit. I'm not sure I'd expect the startup scene to survive much beyond than that. For various reasons, it will either become impossibly difficult or trivially easy to start an online business.