4 ms·

The legal basis for presence in the Ukraine would be no different from the legal basis for Russia's presence in Syria (except this government isn't in the habit

by yyyk 5y ago

The legal basis for presence in the Ukraine would be no different from the legal basis for Russia's presence in Syria (except this government isn't in the habit of using WMDs against its own citizens). If Putin wants to commit suicide by being dumb, we can't stop him, but he should know an attack would end up badly (for the Russians). We can see they have difficulty with merely the regular Ukrainian army.

pandaman 5y ago
Well, this the question, why would it end badly for Russians? I mean, the Twitter difficulties are definitely a thing but as far as I can tell in reality Ukraine has its cities encircled or lost, its military either hiding in the encircled cities or being ground down in cauldrons, Ukraine has not succeeded in any significant counter offense, it's out of fuel even to retreat and regroup. And Ukraine had an army better than any EU country other than Turkey and Russia had not been waging a total war (thus the forces hiding in cities are not being burned with tactical nukes/thermobaric munitions). Russia is not Syria, it has air force and navy, great anti-air and anti-ship capabilities, military intelligence of all kinds (and nukes, of course). What is going to ensure the Western victory, angry twits? As far as I know, Twitter is banned in Russia already. More sanctions? These seem to hurt the West more than Russia at the moment and Russia has not even started turning off oil, coal and gas.
- gambiting 5y ago
  >>More sanctions? These seem to hurt the West more than Russia at the moment Source? Because on the face of it, that sounds actually crazy. Russia has been reduced to economic rubble already. By summer, they won't be able to run their farms that operate foreign equipment, their planes can't fly anywhere but even if they could that's a moot point because very soon they won't be able to maintain them, tens of thousands of Russians are fleeing the country every day(and I can only imagine a lot of them are the best and brightest and also people with means to actually escape). It looks like the best they can hope for is for China to buy them out and that they can become a slightly better equipped North Korea 2 - a chinese vassal state. >>Russia has not even started turning off oil, coal and gas. I'll give them one thing - Russia has been better at sanctioning themselves than "the west" could ever hope for. Just today they announced a 10 year ban on any foreign company that doesn't return by 1st of May, in addition to the legislation that is getting rid of copyright as well as patent protection for foreign companies in the country. Why would anyone do any business with them long term. So yeah, I absolutely expect them to destroy whatever sliver of economy they still have and actually turn off the gas. I can't wait actually.
  - pandaman 5y ago
    >Russia has been reduced to economic rubble already Sure, this is what Obama said in 2014. Since then Russia modernized its military: deployed the new MBT, 5th gen fighter, hypersonic missiles among many things (and actually used the latter in combat just recently) and waged two successful military campaigns (Syria and Ukraine). What did the Western military do in the same time? Managed to screw up the retreat from Afghanistan and the West-backed forces in Syria lost/defected. Any successes of the Western military might I had missed? And the WH Press Secretary had been telling us that the inflation the US is suffering is caused by Putin so I am guessing it's the effect of the sanctions since I doubt very much Putin is in control of the US economy just yet (that's assuming WH is not blatantly lying and there is some link between Putin and inflation).
    - gambiting 5y ago
      >>Sure, this is what Obama said in 2014 Maybe you missed it, but the sanctions imposed on Russia in the last two weeks are nothing like we've ever seen. The position Obama was in 2014 is not even comparable. Also, has he really actually said that? I find that hard to believe.
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        Obama did in fact say that in his 2015 SotU [0]. And he was right, while it rebounded after 2015, the Russian GDP/capita dropped almost 12% in 2014 and almost 34% in 2015. [0] Here's one piece of analysis after, and referring to, the description: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/21/obamas-remarks-on-russias-economy-dead-right-experts.html https://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/21/obamas-remarks-on-russias-ec...
      - pandaman 5y ago
        Are you denying Obama proclaimed Russian economy is "in tatters"? Is the current state of "being reduced to economic rubble" even worse than being "in tatters"? I'd like to see the whole scale, please. I am curious what's next after "reduced to rubble" since that is what will be needed if the EU/US are going to fight Russia. I just hope it does not push my gas prices over 20 $/gal.

by yyyk 5y ago

pandaman 5y ago

Well, this the question, why would it end badly for Russians? I mean, the Twitter difficulties are definitely a thing but as far as I can tell in reality Ukraine has its cities encircled or lost, its military either hiding in the encircled cities or being ground down in cauldrons, Ukraine has not succeeded in any significant counter offense, it's out of fuel even to retreat and regroup. And Ukraine had an army better than any EU country other than Turkey and Russia had not been waging a total war (thus the forces hiding in cities are not being burned with tactical nukes/thermobaric munitions). Russia is not Syria, it has air force and navy, great anti-air and anti-ship capabilities, military intelligence of all kinds (and nukes, of course). What is going to ensure the Western victory, angry twits? As far as I know, Twitter is banned in Russia already. More sanctions? These seem to hurt the West more than Russia at the moment and Russia has not even started turning off oil, coal and gas.

gambiting 5y ago
>>More sanctions? These seem to hurt the West more than Russia at the moment Source? Because on the face of it, that sounds actually crazy. Russia has been reduced to economic rubble already. By summer, they won't be able to run their farms that operate foreign equipment, their planes can't fly anywhere but even if they could that's a moot point because very soon they won't be able to maintain them, tens of thousands of Russians are fleeing the country every day(and I can only imagine a lot of them are the best and brightest and also people with means to actually escape). It looks like the best they can hope for is for China to buy them out and that they can become a slightly better equipped North Korea 2 - a chinese vassal state. >>Russia has not even started turning off oil, coal and gas. I'll give them one thing - Russia has been better at sanctioning themselves than "the west" could ever hope for. Just today they announced a 10 year ban on any foreign company that doesn't return by 1st of May, in addition to the legislation that is getting rid of copyright as well as patent protection for foreign companies in the country. Why would anyone do any business with them long term. So yeah, I absolutely expect them to destroy whatever sliver of economy they still have and actually turn off the gas. I can't wait actually.
- pandaman 5y ago
  >Russia has been reduced to economic rubble already Sure, this is what Obama said in 2014. Since then Russia modernized its military: deployed the new MBT, 5th gen fighter, hypersonic missiles among many things (and actually used the latter in combat just recently) and waged two successful military campaigns (Syria and Ukraine). What did the Western military do in the same time? Managed to screw up the retreat from Afghanistan and the West-backed forces in Syria lost/defected. Any successes of the Western military might I had missed? And the WH Press Secretary had been telling us that the inflation the US is suffering is caused by Putin so I am guessing it's the effect of the sanctions since I doubt very much Putin is in control of the US economy just yet (that's assuming WH is not blatantly lying and there is some link between Putin and inflation).
  - gambiting 5y ago
    >>Sure, this is what Obama said in 2014 Maybe you missed it, but the sanctions imposed on Russia in the last two weeks are nothing like we've ever seen. The position Obama was in 2014 is not even comparable. Also, has he really actually said that? I find that hard to believe.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      Obama did in fact say that in his 2015 SotU [0]. And he was right, while it rebounded after 2015, the Russian GDP/capita dropped almost 12% in 2014 and almost 34% in 2015. [0] Here's one piece of analysis after, and referring to, the description: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/21/obamas-remarks-on-russias-economy-dead-right-experts.html https://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/21/obamas-remarks-on-russias-ec...
    - pandaman 5y ago
      Are you denying Obama proclaimed Russian economy is "in tatters"? Is the current state of "being reduced to economic rubble" even worse than being "in tatters"? I'd like to see the whole scale, please. I am curious what's next after "reduced to rubble" since that is what will be needed if the EU/US are going to fight Russia. I just hope it does not push my gas prices over 20 $/gal.