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Nothing in here that hasn't been said in the last 10 year. It's tempting to dismiss it as a bubble. But; most bubbles don't get 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th... etc. chanc

Nothing in here that hasn't been said in the last 10 year. It's tempting to dismiss it as a bubble. But; most bubbles don't get 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th... etc. chances. Every time bitcoin crashes people say "this one is different, this time it's dead for real", then it bounces back. It's proving to be far more cockroach like than anyone anticipated. In the more distant future, if bitcoin survives, its utility will just be one thing, it will be regarded as a unit of measuring transaction value independent of any government. It will not be a replacement for any sovereign currency. Just this extra tool out there in the ether of finance. Notions of store of value, blockchain, proof of work etc. will be regarded as implementation details of achieving a global unit of account. Think of it like the SI unit of value, kilogram, meter, bitcoin. It's still far too illiquid to serve that purpose now; but, once it has at least an order of magnitude larger market cap it may.

effancy 5y ago
Keep on dreaming. The reason why he has no new arguments is that the case is clear and simple.
- tippytippytango 5y ago
  Just staying open to the bull and bear case. None of us really know the future.
Retric 5y ago
Bubbles only look like pure movement in one direction when zoomed out, the 90’s stock market had plenty of setbacks on what we recall as a seemingly endless rise. For example 1997-10-27 the DOW had a single day drop of −7.18%, a direct quote from the time period: "I came in to look at my stock prices and I said, 'Oh my God, it's a crash!’” But nope just a minor correction. https://money.cnn.com/1997/10/27/markets/marketwrap/ https://money.cnn.com/1997/10/27/markets/marketwrap/ Crypto is inherently less stable which amplifies minor corrections, but that’s not what crypto’s bubble bursting looks like. When prices drop 99% that’s when the bubbles burst.
- joering2 5y ago
  Great summary. My POV is that stock exchange runs along the economy. Long-term you cannot lose because economy continues to grow (exception are wars and of course scam stocks [Enron]). I approach Crypto in a similar way - long-term it will continue to grow despite being spooked here and there and losing 30% or so - because more and more people will get into it. And unless internet stops existing there will be people buying, and for now half of my family doesn't even know what crypto is (yet) As of 99% dropping, at this point so many minds has been set to see growth or "know" the "minimum" value of main cryptocoins, that masses would not allow for it to drop 99%. There will be enough people along the line to be picking it up at all sort of discounts and Fibonacci supports and arcs to hold the support lines and change trends. I am also very glad to see crypto finally got "locked" on the stock exchange.. and moves with it up or down (logical, since lots of Wall St. guys finally joined the party). I think long-term this will help stabilize BTC, ETC etc, since they will be mimicking serious market (U.S. stock market) moves. just my 2c (investing in stocks since 1992, and crypto early adopter 2009)
  - hiq 5y ago
    > because more and more people will get into it Why do you believe that? Are you talking about pure speculation?
- dorgo 5y ago
  > When prices drop 99% that’s when the bubbles burst. lol. Ether dropped 93% in 2018 and is doing just fine today. I think you have to adjust your "bubbles burst" definition for crypto.
  - Retric 5y ago
    93% retains 7x the value of a 99% drop. Actual companies have recovered from similar drops, it’s however rare.
jasfi 5y ago
There may be bubbles within crypto, but crypto itself is not a bubble.
hiq 5y ago
> bitcoin survives What does this mean? I would bet that there'll always be Bitcoin miners, so the network will never completely "die". If you're talking about BTC/USD rate, it's hard to meaningfully interpret given how unregulated (and possibly manipulated, see Tether) the market is. As a technology, it's probably more interesting to look at, say, the number of people who did a cryptocurrency transaction in the past month or week.
xtracto 5y ago
Bitcoin is a thousand year bubble.

effancy 5y ago

Keep on dreaming. The reason why he has no new arguments is that the case is clear and simple.

tippytippytango 5y ago
Just staying open to the bull and bear case. None of us really know the future.

Retric 5y ago

Bubbles only look like pure movement in one direction when zoomed out, the 90’s stock market had plenty of setbacks on what we recall as a seemingly endless rise. For example 1997-10-27 the DOW had a single day drop of −7.18%, a direct quote from the time period: "I came in to look at my stock prices and I said, 'Oh my God, it's a crash!’” But nope just a minor correction. https://money.cnn.com/1997/10/27/markets/marketwrap/ https://money.cnn.com/1997/10/27/markets/marketwrap/ Crypto is inherently less stable which amplifies minor corrections, but that’s not what crypto’s bubble bursting looks like. When prices drop 99% that’s when the bubbles burst.

joering2 5y ago
Great summary. My POV is that stock exchange runs along the economy. Long-term you cannot lose because economy continues to grow (exception are wars and of course scam stocks [Enron]). I approach Crypto in a similar way - long-term it will continue to grow despite being spooked here and there and losing 30% or so - because more and more people will get into it. And unless internet stops existing there will be people buying, and for now half of my family doesn't even know what crypto is (yet) As of 99% dropping, at this point so many minds has been set to see growth or "know" the "minimum" value of main cryptocoins, that masses would not allow for it to drop 99%. There will be enough people along the line to be picking it up at all sort of discounts and Fibonacci supports and arcs to hold the support lines and change trends. I am also very glad to see crypto finally got "locked" on the stock exchange.. and moves with it up or down (logical, since lots of Wall St. guys finally joined the party). I think long-term this will help stabilize BTC, ETC etc, since they will be mimicking serious market (U.S. stock market) moves. just my 2c (investing in stocks since 1992, and crypto early adopter 2009)
- hiq 5y ago
  > because more and more people will get into it Why do you believe that? Are you talking about pure speculation?
dorgo 5y ago
> When prices drop 99% that’s when the bubbles burst. lol. Ether dropped 93% in 2018 and is doing just fine today. I think you have to adjust your "bubbles burst" definition for crypto.
- Retric 5y ago
  93% retains 7x the value of a 99% drop. Actual companies have recovered from similar drops, it’s however rare.

jasfi 5y ago

There may be bubbles within crypto, but crypto itself is not a bubble.

hiq 5y ago

> bitcoin survives What does this mean? I would bet that there'll always be Bitcoin miners, so the network will never completely "die". If you're talking about BTC/USD rate, it's hard to meaningfully interpret given how unregulated (and possibly manipulated, see Tether) the market is. As a technology, it's probably more interesting to look at, say, the number of people who did a cryptocurrency transaction in the past month or week.

xtracto 5y ago

Bitcoin is a thousand year bubble.