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If Russia intentionally causes a Kessler cascade in LEO, I’m pretty sure it triggers Article V, and the orbits will be clear for centuries before the next launc

If Russia intentionally causes a Kessler cascade in LEO, I’m pretty sure it triggers Article V, and the orbits will be clear for centuries before the next launch.

roenxi 5y ago
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is being opposed by NATO, and they are fighting troops on the ground holding NATO-built weapons, NATO-built planes and controlling NATO-built drones. Possibly with training from NATO countries. From the Russian perspective, I expect they already understand that they are at war with NATO. Since Russia can't "win" a war with NATO in any reasonable sense, it is really just a question of how scorched-earth they feel like going in defeat.
- google234123 5y ago
  Both Russia and the US have fought and lost many wars where the other supplied their enemy in the Cold War and nothing bad happened.
  - katbyte 5y ago
    People died. Bad things did happen. Many of them. May I suggest “never escalated to nuclear war”? Also it almost did a few times.
- mlindner 5y ago
  Please don't spread this kind of propaganda. This is not "Russia's perspective". The only perspective that matters is Putin's and whatever Putin says is gospel. His concern about Ukraine in his own words is it having been taking over by a "nazi-led junta" and other such nonsense. Nazis is the rallying call for the public, not NATO. Also, there are no NATO planes in Ukraine, nor are there NATO drones. There are Turkish Drones, but the only one using those are Turkey's allies, not NATO. Also Russia forced the west's hand here. Russia was slowly invading and taking territory from Ukraine. First in Crimea, then in the Donbass so US and others started providing them with small amounts of aid. Then Russia suddenly invaded again forcing the west's hand against a Hitler-like drumbeat that Putin has caused in Russia.
  - tsimionescu 5y ago
    > nor are there NATO drones. There are Turkish Drones, but the only one using those are Turkey's allies, not NATO. Turkey is a NATO member since 1952, so it's hard to say that Turkish drones are not NATO drones, while still accepting that Ukraine is using other NATO weapons. I agree with most of your other points here. There are some quiblles to be touched on related to exactly who was first to escalate things in Ukraine (Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador discussing who they want to replace Yankovich a good two weeks before the people forced him out does suggest that the orange revolution that preceded the 2014 invasion wasn't 100% homebrewed), but yes, this is mostly a problem of Russia's own making.
  - vogre 5y ago
    >Also, there are no NATO planes in Ukraine, nor are there NATO drones That's not true https://theintercept.com/2022/03/17/us-intelligence-ukraine-russia/ https://theintercept.com/2022/03/17/us-intelligence-ukraine-...
    - krisoft 5y ago
      That is a nice article. Which part of it supports that there are NATO planes in Ukraine?
  - roenxi 5y ago
    > Nazis is the rallying call for the public, not NATO. Unless the Spectator [0] is lying to me, NATO came up in the first & second paragraph of the war declaration. Nazis turn up a lot later. And one disadvantages the west has in containing Russian propaganda about NATO expansion is that the Russians are being truthful. NATO expansion is being done to target Russia and make them less safe. [0] https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-text-putin-s-declaration-of-war-on-ukraine https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-text-putin-s-declar...
    - gattilorenz 5y ago
      Being truthful in the sense that yes, sure, more countries are joining NATO. But that's the same countries that used to be under the USSR sphere of influence, that Russia didn't manage to attract after 1991 (remember the Commonwealth of Independent States?), and that are now voluntarily choosing to join NATO, presumably because Russia is a scary neighbor to have (Crimea and all). Just to cross some t's and dot some i's...

If Russia intentionally causes a Kessler cascade in LEO, I’m pretty sure it triggers Article V, and the orbits will be clear for centuries before the next launch.

roenxi 5y ago

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is being opposed by NATO, and they are fighting troops on the ground holding NATO-built weapons, NATO-built planes and controlling NATO-built drones. Possibly with training from NATO countries. From the Russian perspective, I expect they already understand that they are at war with NATO. Since Russia can't "win" a war with NATO in any reasonable sense, it is really just a question of how scorched-earth they feel like going in defeat.

google234123 5y ago
Both Russia and the US have fought and lost many wars where the other supplied their enemy in the Cold War and nothing bad happened.
- katbyte 5y ago
  People died. Bad things did happen. Many of them. May I suggest “never escalated to nuclear war”? Also it almost did a few times.
mlindner 5y ago
Please don't spread this kind of propaganda. This is not "Russia's perspective". The only perspective that matters is Putin's and whatever Putin says is gospel. His concern about Ukraine in his own words is it having been taking over by a "nazi-led junta" and other such nonsense. Nazis is the rallying call for the public, not NATO. Also, there are no NATO planes in Ukraine, nor are there NATO drones. There are Turkish Drones, but the only one using those are Turkey's allies, not NATO. Also Russia forced the west's hand here. Russia was slowly invading and taking territory from Ukraine. First in Crimea, then in the Donbass so US and others started providing them with small amounts of aid. Then Russia suddenly invaded again forcing the west's hand against a Hitler-like drumbeat that Putin has caused in Russia.
- tsimionescu 5y ago
  > nor are there NATO drones. There are Turkish Drones, but the only one using those are Turkey's allies, not NATO. Turkey is a NATO member since 1952, so it's hard to say that Turkish drones are not NATO drones, while still accepting that Ukraine is using other NATO weapons. I agree with most of your other points here. There are some quiblles to be touched on related to exactly who was first to escalate things in Ukraine (Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador discussing who they want to replace Yankovich a good two weeks before the people forced him out does suggest that the orange revolution that preceded the 2014 invasion wasn't 100% homebrewed), but yes, this is mostly a problem of Russia's own making.
- vogre 5y ago
  >Also, there are no NATO planes in Ukraine, nor are there NATO drones That's not true https://theintercept.com/2022/03/17/us-intelligence-ukraine-russia/ https://theintercept.com/2022/03/17/us-intelligence-ukraine-...
  - krisoft 5y ago
    That is a nice article. Which part of it supports that there are NATO planes in Ukraine?
- roenxi 5y ago
  > Nazis is the rallying call for the public, not NATO. Unless the Spectator [0] is lying to me, NATO came up in the first & second paragraph of the war declaration. Nazis turn up a lot later. And one disadvantages the west has in containing Russian propaganda about NATO expansion is that the Russians are being truthful. NATO expansion is being done to target Russia and make them less safe. [0] https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-text-putin-s-declaration-of-war-on-ukraine https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-text-putin-s-declar...
  - gattilorenz 5y ago
    Being truthful in the sense that yes, sure, more countries are joining NATO. But that's the same countries that used to be under the USSR sphere of influence, that Russia didn't manage to attract after 1991 (remember the Commonwealth of Independent States?), and that are now voluntarily choosing to join NATO, presumably because Russia is a scary neighbor to have (Crimea and all). Just to cross some t's and dot some i's...