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Yep and this is also a problem due to "birth tourism." Particularly, when you consider it's mostly rich Chinese and Russians who are capitalizing on it to obtai

by tyjen 5y ago

Yep and this is also a problem due to "birth tourism." Particularly, when you consider it's mostly rich Chinese and Russians who are capitalizing on it to obtain US citizenship for their children. Doesn't take a genius to see the potential long-term negative implications this creates. It's clearly not going to liberalize China or Chinese diaspora temporarily living abroad at large, let's not make that catastrophic error again. It was just a couple days ago that a Chinese student in the US stabbed a Tiananmen activist Chinese defector to death, in public. Thanks Henry Kissinger. It's kind of time to take this stuff seriously before it catches us by surprise more than it already has.

jhbadger 5y ago
But sometimes it works. Kissinger, et al were working off the post-WWII model where the authoritarian governments of Japan and Germany (in the Western half, at least) were successfully replaced by democratic regimes. Yes, it didn't work in China nor Russia nor the Middle East nor much of Eastern Europe. But why, exactly?
- pmontra 5y ago
  Don't forget the authoritarian government of Italy. Italy had several competing political parties before fascism. They were basically outlawed but they were still alive when eventually Mussolini was overthrown at the end of a lost war 20 years later. Maybe that's why it worked for Italy.
- tyjen 5y ago
  Exact is too hard, but I can take an estimated guess. Off the top of my head here, but a combination of institutional differences, proximal exposure to supporting institutional systems, strong national identity, and sustained economic growth (shared). I don't have much time and this is will be exceedingly reductionist, but... It worked for Western Germany, not for Eastern Germany. The West was rebuilt by an Allied council and the East by a Soviet Bloc. After the economic collapse of the USSR and reunification of Germany, Western Germany extensively prepared for the transition process. Another example of this is North and South Korea, prior to Korean War North Korea was the dominant economy. North has not collapse due to Chinese support. Japan was also rebuilt with the US's help under the condition of democratic reforms. Japan saw immense economic growth afterward under that system. The Middle East is difficult due to a lack of cohesive national identities in the countries stemming from longstanding tribalistic tendencies, without proximally supporting liberal institutions. Well, except Israel, but that's an obvious conflict of interest. Autocrats and monarchies overcome culture barriers with force and threat of force. As for China, they were handed a MASSIVE economic opportunity for reestablishing diplomatic relations--lopsided exchange in China's favor IMO. This is also why the US has the "Rust Belt" and other economic dead zones throughout middle America that were once manufacturing towns. It may even help explain, the roaring-80s. The US did not anticipate an economic transfer as fast as it occurred. Different topic... Rapid Chinese economic growth empowered the CCP to maintain its status as a champion of the people for improving the quality of life across the nation as a product of the CCPs policies, which occurred at the rate and ease that it did largely thanks to Kissinger coaxing Nixon to made a "great deal" with Mao. And, this isn't meant to dismiss the Chinese population's agency fostering the growth, only that it wouldn't have happened anywhere near as fast as it did without the US trade deal. As for much, not all, of Eastern Europe, and, including Russia. Soviet corruption remained and didn't see enough economic growth to justify embracing liberal democracy. Many people think or are lead to believe that life was better under Soviet rule, even though the mechanism of economic growth it implemented was doomed to fail in the long-run.
- newsclues 5y ago
  The USA still has military bases in Germany and Japan. Those nations were conquered!
  - jhbadger 5y ago
    But even if you want to consider it such, there were nations that the US equally conquered such as Iraq and Afghanistan where the "nation building" clearly failed.

by tyjen 5y ago

jhbadger 5y ago

But sometimes it works. Kissinger, et al were working off the post-WWII model where the authoritarian governments of Japan and Germany (in the Western half, at least) were successfully replaced by democratic regimes. Yes, it didn't work in China nor Russia nor the Middle East nor much of Eastern Europe. But why, exactly?

pmontra 5y ago
Don't forget the authoritarian government of Italy. Italy had several competing political parties before fascism. They were basically outlawed but they were still alive when eventually Mussolini was overthrown at the end of a lost war 20 years later. Maybe that's why it worked for Italy.
tyjen 5y ago
Exact is too hard, but I can take an estimated guess. Off the top of my head here, but a combination of institutional differences, proximal exposure to supporting institutional systems, strong national identity, and sustained economic growth (shared). I don't have much time and this is will be exceedingly reductionist, but... It worked for Western Germany, not for Eastern Germany. The West was rebuilt by an Allied council and the East by a Soviet Bloc. After the economic collapse of the USSR and reunification of Germany, Western Germany extensively prepared for the transition process. Another example of this is North and South Korea, prior to Korean War North Korea was the dominant economy. North has not collapse due to Chinese support. Japan was also rebuilt with the US's help under the condition of democratic reforms. Japan saw immense economic growth afterward under that system. The Middle East is difficult due to a lack of cohesive national identities in the countries stemming from longstanding tribalistic tendencies, without proximally supporting liberal institutions. Well, except Israel, but that's an obvious conflict of interest. Autocrats and monarchies overcome culture barriers with force and threat of force. As for China, they were handed a MASSIVE economic opportunity for reestablishing diplomatic relations--lopsided exchange in China's favor IMO. This is also why the US has the "Rust Belt" and other economic dead zones throughout middle America that were once manufacturing towns. It may even help explain, the roaring-80s. The US did not anticipate an economic transfer as fast as it occurred. Different topic... Rapid Chinese economic growth empowered the CCP to maintain its status as a champion of the people for improving the quality of life across the nation as a product of the CCPs policies, which occurred at the rate and ease that it did largely thanks to Kissinger coaxing Nixon to made a "great deal" with Mao. And, this isn't meant to dismiss the Chinese population's agency fostering the growth, only that it wouldn't have happened anywhere near as fast as it did without the US trade deal. As for much, not all, of Eastern Europe, and, including Russia. Soviet corruption remained and didn't see enough economic growth to justify embracing liberal democracy. Many people think or are lead to believe that life was better under Soviet rule, even though the mechanism of economic growth it implemented was doomed to fail in the long-run.
newsclues 5y ago
The USA still has military bases in Germany and Japan. Those nations were conquered!
- jhbadger 5y ago
  But even if you want to consider it such, there were nations that the US equally conquered such as Iraq and Afghanistan where the "nation building" clearly failed.