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Putin already crossed that line - he has been bombing places in West Ukraine like Lviv and that training site for a couple of days now.

by dh2022 5y ago

yyyk 5y ago
Putin has been bombing in the West, but there's no Russian troop presence anywhere nearby and he wouldn't dare bomb near an actual deployment of foreign troops.
- pandaman 5y ago
  Do you mean regular army? Because Russian Airspace Force definitely has killed a few dozen foreign mercs (and presumably "military advisors") in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yavoriv_military_base_attack https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yavoriv_military_base_attack
  - yyyk 5y ago
    I heard various casualty reports, doesn't really matter though. These are volunteers, with no official backing. Not the same as a true deployment. Apparently I'm not the only one thinking this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30730140 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30730140
    - pandaman 5y ago
      I don't doubt a lot of people think the Western forces would be invulnerable to Russian fire and suggest even setting up a no-fly zone (i.e. engaging Russian military vessels). I don't see any rational basis for this belief though. Even Ukraine itself has not declared a war with Russia, what Western country would, in your opinion?
      - yyyk 5y ago
        The legal basis for presence in the Ukraine would be no different from the legal basis for Russia's presence in Syria (except this government isn't in the habit of using WMDs against its own citizens). If Putin wants to commit suicide by being dumb, we can't stop him, but he should know an attack would end up badly (for the Russians). We can see they have difficulty with merely the regular Ukrainian army.
        pandaman 5y ago
        Well, this the question, why would it end badly for Russians? I mean, the Twitter difficulties are definitely a thing but as far as I can tell in reality Ukraine has its cities encircled or lost, its military either hiding in the encircled cities or being ground down in cauldrons, Ukraine has not succeeded in any significant counter offense, it's out of fuel even to retreat and regroup. And Ukraine had an army better than any EU country other than Turkey and Russia had not been waging a total war (thus the forces hiding in cities are not being burned with tactical nukes/thermobaric munitions). Russia is not Syria, it has air force and navy, great anti-air and anti-ship capabilities, military intelligence of all kinds (and nukes, of course). What is going to ensure the Western victory, angry twits? As far as I know, Twitter is banned in Russia already. More sanctions? These seem to hurt the West more than Russia at the moment and Russia has not even started turning off oil, coal and gas.
        gambiting 5y ago
        >>More sanctions? These seem to hurt the West more than Russia at the moment Source? Because on the face of it, that sounds actually crazy. Russia has been reduced to economic rubble already. By summer, they won't be able to run their farms that operate foreign equipment, their planes can't fly anywhere but even if they could that's a moot point because very soon they won't be able to maintain them, tens of thousands of Russians are fleeing the country every day(and I can only imagine a lot of them are the best and brightest and also people with means to actually escape). It looks like the best they can hope for is for China to buy them out and that they can become a slightly better equipped North Korea 2 - a chinese vassal state. >>Russia has not even started turning off oil, coal and gas. I'll give them one thing - Russia has been better at sanctioning themselves than "the west" could ever hope for. Just today they announced a 10 year ban on any foreign company that doesn't return by 1st of May, in addition to the legislation that is getting rid of copyright as well as patent protection for foreign companies in the country. Why would anyone do any business with them long term. So yeah, I absolutely expect them to destroy whatever sliver of economy they still have and actually turn off the gas. I can't wait actually.

Putin already crossed that line - he has been bombing places in West Ukraine like Lviv and that training site for a couple of days now.

by dh2022 5y ago

Putin already crossed that line - he has been bombing places in West Ukraine like Lviv and that training site for a couple of days now.

yyyk 5y ago

Putin has been bombing in the West, but there's no Russian troop presence anywhere nearby and he wouldn't dare bomb near an actual deployment of foreign troops.

pandaman 5y ago
Do you mean regular army? Because Russian Airspace Force definitely has killed a few dozen foreign mercs (and presumably "military advisors") in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yavoriv_military_base_attack https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yavoriv_military_base_attack
- yyyk 5y ago
  I heard various casualty reports, doesn't really matter though. These are volunteers, with no official backing. Not the same as a true deployment. Apparently I'm not the only one thinking this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30730140 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30730140
  - pandaman 5y ago
    I don't doubt a lot of people think the Western forces would be invulnerable to Russian fire and suggest even setting up a no-fly zone (i.e. engaging Russian military vessels). I don't see any rational basis for this belief though. Even Ukraine itself has not declared a war with Russia, what Western country would, in your opinion?
    - yyyk 5y ago
      The legal basis for presence in the Ukraine would be no different from the legal basis for Russia's presence in Syria (except this government isn't in the habit of using WMDs against its own citizens). If Putin wants to commit suicide by being dumb, we can't stop him, but he should know an attack would end up badly (for the Russians). We can see they have difficulty with merely the regular Ukrainian army.
      - pandaman 5y ago
        Well, this the question, why would it end badly for Russians? I mean, the Twitter difficulties are definitely a thing but as far as I can tell in reality Ukraine has its cities encircled or lost, its military either hiding in the encircled cities or being ground down in cauldrons, Ukraine has not succeeded in any significant counter offense, it's out of fuel even to retreat and regroup. And Ukraine had an army better than any EU country other than Turkey and Russia had not been waging a total war (thus the forces hiding in cities are not being burned with tactical nukes/thermobaric munitions). Russia is not Syria, it has air force and navy, great anti-air and anti-ship capabilities, military intelligence of all kinds (and nukes, of course). What is going to ensure the Western victory, angry twits? As far as I know, Twitter is banned in Russia already. More sanctions? These seem to hurt the West more than Russia at the moment and Russia has not even started turning off oil, coal and gas.
        gambiting 5y ago
        >>More sanctions? These seem to hurt the West more than Russia at the moment Source? Because on the face of it, that sounds actually crazy. Russia has been reduced to economic rubble already. By summer, they won't be able to run their farms that operate foreign equipment, their planes can't fly anywhere but even if they could that's a moot point because very soon they won't be able to maintain them, tens of thousands of Russians are fleeing the country every day(and I can only imagine a lot of them are the best and brightest and also people with means to actually escape). It looks like the best they can hope for is for China to buy them out and that they can become a slightly better equipped North Korea 2 - a chinese vassal state. >>Russia has not even started turning off oil, coal and gas. I'll give them one thing - Russia has been better at sanctioning themselves than "the west" could ever hope for. Just today they announced a 10 year ban on any foreign company that doesn't return by 1st of May, in addition to the legislation that is getting rid of copyright as well as patent protection for foreign companies in the country. Why would anyone do any business with them long term. So yeah, I absolutely expect them to destroy whatever sliver of economy they still have and actually turn off the gas. I can't wait actually.