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By those estimates, 30% live in California, 30% in Texas, and 30% in New York City. That leaves 10% for the entire rest of the US. Maybe the respondents of this

By those estimates, 30% live in California, 30% in Texas, and 30% in New York City. That leaves 10% for the entire rest of the US. Maybe the respondents of this poll just didn't care to think for 5 seconds for each answer, rather than revealing some deep-set misperceptions?

RajT88 5y ago
There probably were relatively few people who responded with those exact figures. My guess is someone who said 30% of the country lived in CA is unlikely to say 30% of the country lives in Texas. Probably there are outliers for each far above 30% that average out in each category. Would love to see a deeper analysis on how the responses break down across questions.
- wnoise 5y ago
  Medians do improve things -- but not by that much.
AnimalMuppet 5y ago
It's not that they don't think (though they don't). It's that they don't have any kind of a realistic feel for how big various groups are. (Which means they would have to think, instead of just responding by intuition - and they don't think.)
tedunangst 5y ago
This is not surprising? If I survey how much an appetizer costs, how much an entree costs, how much dessert costs, and how much a dinner costs, the answer to the fourth is not the sum of the first three, or even close. Or ask people how much time they spend sleeping, eating, working, driving to work, etc., and the answer is nowhere close to 24 hours. People simply don't approach these questions from starting with a whole, then considering a portion. Ask people if the government should help group X, yes. Sum up the costs of all their answers, hell no.
- car_analogy 5y ago
  > This is not surprising? I had assumed most Americans knew the US consisted of 50 states, so their estimates for the population of a single state should have started at 1/50 = 2%. Clearly I was grossly mistaken.
bagels 5y ago
Maybe each person didn't individually answer each question?
commandlinefan 5y ago
> 30% live in California, 30% in Texas, and 30% in New York City That’s also what most Europeans think.

RajT88 5y ago

There probably were relatively few people who responded with those exact figures. My guess is someone who said 30% of the country lived in CA is unlikely to say 30% of the country lives in Texas. Probably there are outliers for each far above 30% that average out in each category. Would love to see a deeper analysis on how the responses break down across questions.

wnoise 5y ago
Medians do improve things -- but not by that much.

AnimalMuppet 5y ago

It's not that they don't think (though they don't). It's that they don't have any kind of a realistic feel for how big various groups are. (Which means they would have to think, instead of just responding by intuition - and they don't think.)

tedunangst 5y ago

This is not surprising? If I survey how much an appetizer costs, how much an entree costs, how much dessert costs, and how much a dinner costs, the answer to the fourth is not the sum of the first three, or even close. Or ask people how much time they spend sleeping, eating, working, driving to work, etc., and the answer is nowhere close to 24 hours. People simply don't approach these questions from starting with a whole, then considering a portion. Ask people if the government should help group X, yes. Sum up the costs of all their answers, hell no.

car_analogy 5y ago
> This is not surprising? I had assumed most Americans knew the US consisted of 50 states, so their estimates for the population of a single state should have started at 1/50 = 2%. Clearly I was grossly mistaken.

bagels 5y ago

Maybe each person didn't individually answer each question?

commandlinefan 5y ago

> 30% live in California, 30% in Texas, and 30% in New York City That’s also what most Europeans think.