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The problem with the Polish jets was apparently that they planned to fuel and load them from a German airbase. It wouldn't really matter that the planes only we

by Ma8ee 5y ago

The problem with the Polish jets was apparently that they planned to fuel and load them from a German airbase. It wouldn't really matter that the planes only were flown by Ukraine pilots. The German airbase would still be a legitime military target. And then NATO would have to respond when cruise missiles started flying into some of their member states.

WJW 5y ago
Poland is already a NATO state, the Russians could just bomb the Polish airbase instead even if they didn't go through Germany.
- Ma8ee 5y ago
  The significance was that they needed to be based in a NATO country, and not in Ukraine. I agree that it wouldn’t make much of a difference if it was Poland or Germany.
dragonwriter 5y ago
The problem with the jets is that everyone involved thinks that they are a bad idea whose military utility isn't worth the degree of provocation no matter what route they are supplies through, but no one wanting to be the country to say no to Ukraine about it; all the maneuvering was about countries making it so someone else would have to be the one to say no. The US finally said no to the specific plan, and put forth the general rationale for the more general no when it did so. (OTOH, the tolerance for acts that might be seen as provocation by Russia among NATO countries—at least those on the Eastern flank—is going up rapidly, with Estonia and Lithuania calling for a NATO-enforces No Fly Zone, and Poland hold-my-beering them and calling for a NATO peacekeeping force in Ukraine.)
- rasz 5y ago
  Except US was the initiator of the whole idea with Blinken doing press rounds for over a week telling everyone how he negotiated this deal with Polish gov.
cjbgkagh 5y ago
AFAIK it was an American base in Germany. Americans were ok with Poland donating their planes to Ukraine, but not ok with Poland donating their planes to the US to donate to Ukraine.
- gambiting 5y ago
  Yes, because of a simple reason - NATO will only defend its members if they didn't "provoke" the other side to attack. Poland is in a far too precarious position to risk anything that could be read as provoking Russia and therefore losing the protection of NATO - Putin would happily take Poland next after Ukraine. Giving the jets to US and then US giving them to Ukraine would avoid that particular issue, but US decided against it.
rasz 5y ago
The problem with Polish MIGs was deferring the decisions entirely into US hands and exposing all talk and no will, at least when no profits are to be made by US arms manufacturers /1. All of a sudden something "obvious and imminent" became "complicated and untenable". /1 Of the declared $800mil Anti armor launchers account for ~$400mil, then the other $400mil pays for some small arms, personal armor, ammo and 100 drones? Its pure mil complex walfare program.

by Ma8ee 5y ago

WJW 5y ago

Poland is already a NATO state, the Russians could just bomb the Polish airbase instead even if they didn't go through Germany.

Ma8ee 5y ago
The significance was that they needed to be based in a NATO country, and not in Ukraine. I agree that it wouldn’t make much of a difference if it was Poland or Germany.

dragonwriter 5y ago

The problem with the jets is that everyone involved thinks that they are a bad idea whose military utility isn't worth the degree of provocation no matter what route they are supplies through, but no one wanting to be the country to say no to Ukraine about it; all the maneuvering was about countries making it so someone else would have to be the one to say no. The US finally said no to the specific plan, and put forth the general rationale for the more general no when it did so. (OTOH, the tolerance for acts that might be seen as provocation by Russia among NATO countries—at least those on the Eastern flank—is going up rapidly, with Estonia and Lithuania calling for a NATO-enforces No Fly Zone, and Poland hold-my-beering them and calling for a NATO peacekeeping force in Ukraine.)

rasz 5y ago
Except US was the initiator of the whole idea with Blinken doing press rounds for over a week telling everyone how he negotiated this deal with Polish gov.

cjbgkagh 5y ago

AFAIK it was an American base in Germany. Americans were ok with Poland donating their planes to Ukraine, but not ok with Poland donating their planes to the US to donate to Ukraine.

gambiting 5y ago
Yes, because of a simple reason - NATO will only defend its members if they didn't "provoke" the other side to attack. Poland is in a far too precarious position to risk anything that could be read as provoking Russia and therefore losing the protection of NATO - Putin would happily take Poland next after Ukraine. Giving the jets to US and then US giving them to Ukraine would avoid that particular issue, but US decided against it.

rasz 5y ago

The problem with Polish MIGs was deferring the decisions entirely into US hands and exposing all talk and no will, at least when no profits are to be made by US arms manufacturers /1. All of a sudden something "obvious and imminent" became "complicated and untenable". /1 Of the declared $800mil Anti armor launchers account for ~$400mil, then the other $400mil pays for some small arms, personal armor, ammo and 100 drones? Its pure mil complex walfare program.