8 ms·

I do not know if we are in a commodity super-cycle but Li price is brrrrrrr. https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=kg&d=240 https://www.d

I do not know if we are in a commodity super-cycle but Li price is brrrrrrr. https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=kg&d=240 https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=... The days of falling battery prices in dollar terms are over.

pg_bot 5y ago
I think you are underestimating the ingenuity of humans. Shortages can lead to new, more efficient ways of doing things. High prices are going to encourage more lithium production, or research into perfect substitutes. It's highly unlikely that in a decade battery prices will be higher than they are today.
coryrc 5y ago
Lithium is a tiny fraction of battery cost.
- sremani 5y ago
  Materials are 60% cost of Li battery and across the board material costs are increasing. So, I stick to my assessment barring new evidence (which was not provided by your post), that Li battery prices falling in dollar terms is done. Reference: https://qnovo.com/82-the-cost-components-of-a-battery/ https://qnovo.com/82-the-cost-components-of-a-battery/
  - thescriptkiddie 5y ago
    The only component of the battery which contains Lithium is the cathode, which according to the article you linked is a little less than 1/3 of the material cost, or around 20% of the total cost. The battery chemistry which contains the most Lithium is Lithium Cobalt Oxide, which by weight is approximately 7% Lithium and 60% Cobalt. Even though Lithium is vastly more expensive than Cobalt, Cobalt still accounts for the majority of the cathode material cost. So it seems like Lithium accounts for at most 10% of the cost of the battery.
  - elihu 5y ago
    LFP doesn't use nickel or cobalt, which are usually the most expensive materials. Lithium prices will probably go up, but I don't think they're hugely significant yet. LFP cells also use plastic, iron, fertilizer (phosphate), and typically copper and aluminum. I think there's some graphite too. Maybe there'll be some equilibrium price as manufacturing costs drop and material prices go up. It would be surprising though if LFP prices didn't keep dropping. (Especially retail prices, which seem to be around $300/kwh in the U.S.)
scythe 5y ago
Lithium gives you about 10 kWh per kg, actually a little better than that: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-much-lithium-li-ion-vehicle-battery-paul-martin https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-much-lithium-li-ion-vehic... So, at the current elevated spot price, Li represents about 5% of the sticker price of a lithium battery. Plus, supply responses to demand growth in minerals tend to be relatively slow, which means that a short term price rise doesn't necessarily suggest a shortage of availability.

pg_bot 5y ago

I think you are underestimating the ingenuity of humans. Shortages can lead to new, more efficient ways of doing things. High prices are going to encourage more lithium production, or research into perfect substitutes. It's highly unlikely that in a decade battery prices will be higher than they are today.

coryrc 5y ago

Lithium is a tiny fraction of battery cost.

sremani 5y ago
Materials are 60% cost of Li battery and across the board material costs are increasing. So, I stick to my assessment barring new evidence (which was not provided by your post), that Li battery prices falling in dollar terms is done. Reference: https://qnovo.com/82-the-cost-components-of-a-battery/ https://qnovo.com/82-the-cost-components-of-a-battery/
- thescriptkiddie 5y ago
  The only component of the battery which contains Lithium is the cathode, which according to the article you linked is a little less than 1/3 of the material cost, or around 20% of the total cost. The battery chemistry which contains the most Lithium is Lithium Cobalt Oxide, which by weight is approximately 7% Lithium and 60% Cobalt. Even though Lithium is vastly more expensive than Cobalt, Cobalt still accounts for the majority of the cathode material cost. So it seems like Lithium accounts for at most 10% of the cost of the battery.
- elihu 5y ago
  LFP doesn't use nickel or cobalt, which are usually the most expensive materials. Lithium prices will probably go up, but I don't think they're hugely significant yet. LFP cells also use plastic, iron, fertilizer (phosphate), and typically copper and aluminum. I think there's some graphite too. Maybe there'll be some equilibrium price as manufacturing costs drop and material prices go up. It would be surprising though if LFP prices didn't keep dropping. (Especially retail prices, which seem to be around $300/kwh in the U.S.)

scythe 5y ago

Lithium gives you about 10 kWh per kg, actually a little better than that: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-much-lithium-li-ion-vehicle-battery-paul-martin https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-much-lithium-li-ion-vehic... So, at the current elevated spot price, Li represents about 5% of the sticker price of a lithium battery. Plus, supply responses to demand growth in minerals tend to be relatively slow, which means that a short term price rise doesn't necessarily suggest a shortage of availability.