There are those who claim that you can accurately predict project timelines from the top down -- high-quality estimates, so to speak. However, this doesn't wor

There are those who claim that you can accurately predict project timelines from the top down -- high-quality estimates, so to speak. However, this doesn't work. Talk to anyone in software for any significant duration. You make accurate high-level estimates, using a multitude of small, low-quality estimates. I trust many independent peer-reviewed studies (102) plus a large number of other studies (another 49), whose outcomes are consistent with all other studies (efficacy declines linearly from 0-7 days after onset). I do not trust a single, large study focussed after the efficacy window has expired. The big question is -- why would you trust such a study, if you surveyed and understood the efficacy decline consistent with all other studies?