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"The war is going to cause massive food shortages in the next year since so many agricultural commodities come from Ukraine and Russia." this argument alone mak

"The war is going to cause massive food shortages in the next year since so many agricultural commodities come from Ukraine and Russia." this argument alone makes this story laughable, it seems the poor sod who wrote this must have Google blocked, as it is very easy to check how much food Ukraine and Russia exports (in fact, Russia still has to import food). I was only waiting for another "argument" that China bought 50% of World supply of wheat, which was a bullshit spread my mainstream media. "Inflation was already high and is only going to get worse because of the war". Why? US, French, British military equipment is hot now, nobody buys from Russians anymore as we all see how great is their stuff. Typically after the wars we saw rapid economic development, not stagnation. In fact a little inflation will help, as there will be no more stupid ways of "investing" money (cryptocurrencies are only the most pathological resource, there were many others, less popularized) so maybe there will be time for some real investments not hoarding money only. "Supply shocks were already bad and are only going to get worse", what actually people were buying from Russia except oil and gas? What other Russian product you've bought in past 5, 10, 15 years? China is clearly staying away from all this "trouble" that Russian have, in fact, China learned a quick lesson about true power of USA and NATO and their determination to support a country, which is not even NATO member. China also learned how great is post-soviet era military equipment, which both China and Russia still use and base its power on this. All those "innovative" solutions like Russian SU-57, Armata T-14 tank sound so great and fearful, the problem is that they don't really exist, I suspect that China might have the same issue. Maybe that's why we haven't heard about any recent Chinese provocation near Taiwan. So, the question is, why so many bullshit in this article, as usually, the answer depends on what this guy is selling, and we learn this at the very end of the article: "I also had Bill Artzerounian on the show to answer questions about the benefits of working with a tax advisor and the tax implications of selling a huge loser in your portfolio."

jka 5y ago
Agricultural commodities include more than food exports. Fertilizer is an important factor to consider as well. Here's an example from 2021 where fertilizer shortages within North America caused an expectation of price increases: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/25/fertilizer-shortage-north-america-farmers-food-prices https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/25/fertiliz... And here is one of the most commonly-used chemical processes used to produce ammonia for fertilizer -- it often uses natural gas as an input: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process Food scarcity and food price increases could cause large amounts of human suffering. Despite any ongoing conflicts I think it should be a priority to maintain and improve food supply chains.
thevagrant 5y ago
Ah look not sure if you've been following the detail but with a lack of supply of wheat, fertiliser, oil and gas this contributes massively to risk of food shortages. You personally may not have been buying product from Russia or Ukraine but others will have been. They now have to look for replacement options creating market pressure. Wheat and crops sourced from other countries still have to be harvested, so the oil prices going up (even if that was a single factor) can risk reduction in harvest and crop yields. Oil supply is just one of the issues right now. Once you add fertiliser, crops, not to mention unpredicted or unreported factors, this is going to get painful for some.
throw0101a 5y ago
> (in fact, Russia still has to import food). "Russia-Ukraine war sends wheat futures to 14-year high" * https://globalnews.ca/news/8663571/russia-ukraine-war-wheat-prices/ https://globalnews.ca/news/8663571/russia-ukraine-war-wheat-... "Forget Oil. Putin’s War Is Wrecking the Wheat Market." * https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/02/russia-war-wheat-economy-food-security/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/02/russia-war-wheat-econom... "The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural markets and the risks associated with the current conflict" * https://www.fao.org/3/cb9013en/cb9013en.pdf https://www.fao.org/3/cb9013en/cb9013en.pdf May not be a big deal for rich people / countries, but other places may not be as fortunate and that could lead to turmoil: "Nigeria’s need for wheat is rising—and so is the price" * https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nigeria-wheat-rising-price-142053856.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nigeria-wheat-rising-price-14... > Why? US, French, British military equipment is hot now, nobody buys from Russians anymore as we all see how great is their stuff. Oil, for one. Which has knock-on effects for the transportation of just about every other product out there. Then there's the natural gas that Germany is dependent on, and Germany is a major manufacturer / exporter. > what actually people were buying from Russia except oil and gas? Oh, so we have to worry only about the global consequences of oil and gas prices. Is that all? Only oil and gas.
- grapescheesee 5y ago
  Spot on.

jka 5y ago

Agricultural commodities include more than food exports. Fertilizer is an important factor to consider as well. Here's an example from 2021 where fertilizer shortages within North America caused an expectation of price increases: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/25/fertilizer-shortage-north-america-farmers-food-prices https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/25/fertiliz... And here is one of the most commonly-used chemical processes used to produce ammonia for fertilizer -- it often uses natural gas as an input: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process Food scarcity and food price increases could cause large amounts of human suffering. Despite any ongoing conflicts I think it should be a priority to maintain and improve food supply chains.

thevagrant 5y ago

Ah look not sure if you've been following the detail but with a lack of supply of wheat, fertiliser, oil and gas this contributes massively to risk of food shortages. You personally may not have been buying product from Russia or Ukraine but others will have been. They now have to look for replacement options creating market pressure. Wheat and crops sourced from other countries still have to be harvested, so the oil prices going up (even if that was a single factor) can risk reduction in harvest and crop yields. Oil supply is just one of the issues right now. Once you add fertiliser, crops, not to mention unpredicted or unreported factors, this is going to get painful for some.

throw0101a 5y ago

> (in fact, Russia still has to import food). "Russia-Ukraine war sends wheat futures to 14-year high" * https://globalnews.ca/news/8663571/russia-ukraine-war-wheat-prices/ https://globalnews.ca/news/8663571/russia-ukraine-war-wheat-... "Forget Oil. Putin’s War Is Wrecking the Wheat Market." * https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/02/russia-war-wheat-economy-food-security/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/02/russia-war-wheat-econom... "The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural markets and the risks associated with the current conflict" * https://www.fao.org/3/cb9013en/cb9013en.pdf https://www.fao.org/3/cb9013en/cb9013en.pdf May not be a big deal for rich people / countries, but other places may not be as fortunate and that could lead to turmoil: "Nigeria’s need for wheat is rising—and so is the price" * https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nigeria-wheat-rising-price-142053856.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nigeria-wheat-rising-price-14... > Why? US, French, British military equipment is hot now, nobody buys from Russians anymore as we all see how great is their stuff. Oil, for one. Which has knock-on effects for the transportation of just about every other product out there. Then there's the natural gas that Germany is dependent on, and Germany is a major manufacturer / exporter. > what actually people were buying from Russia except oil and gas? Oh, so we have to worry only about the global consequences of oil and gas prices. Is that all? Only oil and gas.

grapescheesee 5y ago
Spot on.