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It's not TSMC capacity that's the problem. It's the large nodes that make everything except cutting-edge processors. Nobody builds a new large-node fab, but dem
by zargon 5y ago
It's not TSMC capacity that's the problem. It's the large nodes that make everything except cutting-edge processors. Nobody builds a new large-node fab, but demand for large node components keeps rising.
- nwellinghoff 5y agoYou nailed it. Most chips you use everyday come from the large node fabs. Maybe we should build some more.
- mywittyname 5y agoDemand for semiconductors only recently exploded. In 2016, annual growth suddenly tripled for a few years. It's hard to know if this rate of growth is sustainable, or if it will fall back to "normal" again soon.
- rusticpenn 5y agoIt was predicted though. There are many roadmaps predicting the increase in use of semiconductor sensors (trillion sensors roadmap) etc.
- jjoonathan 5y agolol did that one Renesas fab with the fire make literally every damn semiconductor in the world that wasn't a CPU or GPU?
- swamp40 5y agoSure seems like it. I was hoping to see if anyone knew the root of the problem, but if they do they aren't talking.
- Denvercoder9 5y agoA big part of it is increased demand caused by the disruptions themself: a lot of companies are now stocking to have enough to run production for the whole year, while otherwise they'd order just-in-time. That causes further reduced availability, which causes more companies to stock up, repeat ad infinitum.
- swamp40 5y agoIt's a good theory, but I don't know how to prove it. Of course that's one cause. I'm concerned there are also cascading material shortage problems that have clogged up the system and may be preventing deliveries. I suspect NXP lost their 2022 fab slot for Kinetis micros, but no one is talking. Just delivery dates of late 2023. How many others did that happen to? Why? I am concerned China might be flexing their muscles by shutting down Shenzhen, and maybe they have been flexing their muscles for a year now. I am concerned there is a tipping point that we are close to, where it ALL just falls apart.
- exmadscientist 5y agoI don't have insider information or anything, but I'm convinced that packaging is a huge part of the problem. There are many more wafer fabs than packaging houses, packaging hits high-volume low-margin parts much harder, and everyone routes through the same (lowest cost...) houses in the same tropical low-wage countries because packaging dice is basically a commodity service. Except that now there isn't enough capacity to go around.