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The 7k is cited as a conservative estimate, plus 14k-21k wounded. Add in some unknown counts for deserters and prisoners of war and let’s call it 30k troops los

The 7k is cited as a conservative estimate, plus 14k-21k wounded. Add in some unknown counts for deserters and prisoners of war and let’s call it 30k troops lost. Astonishing. Question for anyone who might know. When Russia says it sent in 150k troops, does that mean 150k people expecting to fight? Or are a substantial portion of them going to be non combatant support staff?

bayesian_horse 5y ago
I don't think that they stuffed an additional 150k of support staff right next to the soldiers, so I guess they include them in the soldier count usually. As far as I know, the distinction of who is "fighting" and who isn't, is dubious at best. Also, all the air force pilots and personnel aren't accounted for in that count because they are stationed elsewhere.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
yread 5y ago
I read somewhere that the BTGs in Transnistria have 1500 men and out of that 400 support. Seems reasonable to extrapolate that.
ericmay 5y ago
From what I understand it’s 150,000 troops which will include combat infantry and support personnel. You need a lot of support personnel to supply infantry effectively. We’re talking cooks, field hospital staff, people trained to be truck drivers, armorers, operations personnel, radio operators, you name it. It’s noteworthy that it appears (smartly) that the Ukrainians are ambushing and taking out supply convoys and units which are way less capable of fighting, but are nonetheless critical. What I’ve seen is Russia lacking in the ability to conduct combined arms operations. Like say you want to take some piece of geography. You’d want to have close air support, artillery being directed toward enemy positions, etc. and it seems that this is just not happening. When the United States invaded Iraq, according to Wikipedia it was with 177,000 with 45,000 from the United Kingdom [1]. And this was for a country that was all but inept against American forces, and a local population that certainly didn’t care for Saddam. You could also probably draw up comparisons equipment-wise with the US and Russia now, except give the Iraqis missiles used in war in 2022, take away combined arms, and instead of having an at least somewhat welcoming population you have one that’s armed to the teeth and hates you and is getting fed intel on your every position. Russia assumed they’d be able to decapitate the country before anyone knew what to do, but then that didn’t happen, and now they don’t have enough troops without conscripting Russians and sending them to Ukraine. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq?wprov=sfti1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq?wprov=sf...
gvb 5y ago
Probably somewhat more than half are for support. The support troops are also at risk, especially the ones driving trucks on the roads in the north. They are valuable (especially tanker trucks) soft targets on a very long supply line and are constrained to traveling on roads. The Russian army is made up of Battalion Tactical Groups[1]. They have ~170 per Wikipedia, ~160 per [3]. They staged ~120 for the attack on Ukraine[2], all of which are now committed to battle (no reserves left). Per Wikipedia, a BTG is 600-800 combat troops (probably 800 when in full strength, probably closer to 700 in actual strength because 100% strength is impossible). This would imply ~80,000-90,000 combat troops. Ukraine claims that they have rendered 31 BTGs "combat ineffective" or have been destroyed[4] - ~30% of the Russian force in Ukraine. If I were a Russian general responsible for defending the Russian homeland, I would be sweating really hard over the BTG math... 160 - 120 = 40 BTG (actually less since several BTG are deployed to Syria, Georgia, etc.) to defend all of Russia. No wonder Xi Jinping is grinning like a shark in the pictures with Putin. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battalion_tactical_group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battalion_tactical_group [2] https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1011404/putin-has-committed-75-percent-of-russias-total-military-to-the-ukraine https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1011404/putin-has-co... [3] https://pledgetimes.com/ukraine-russian-commanders-received-orders-to-attack/ https://pledgetimes.com/ukraine-russian-commanders-received-... [4] https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1502403764787032070?s=20&t=D3R9QKgSbZp3T0T1Xdn_iw https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1502403764787032070...

bayesian_horse 5y ago

I don't think that they stuffed an additional 150k of support staff right next to the soldiers, so I guess they include them in the soldier count usually. As far as I know, the distinction of who is "fighting" and who isn't, is dubious at best. Also, all the air force pilots and personnel aren't accounted for in that count because they are stationed elsewhere.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

yread 5y ago

I read somewhere that the BTGs in Transnistria have 1500 men and out of that 400 support. Seems reasonable to extrapolate that.

ericmay 5y ago

From what I understand it’s 150,000 troops which will include combat infantry and support personnel. You need a lot of support personnel to supply infantry effectively. We’re talking cooks, field hospital staff, people trained to be truck drivers, armorers, operations personnel, radio operators, you name it. It’s noteworthy that it appears (smartly) that the Ukrainians are ambushing and taking out supply convoys and units which are way less capable of fighting, but are nonetheless critical. What I’ve seen is Russia lacking in the ability to conduct combined arms operations. Like say you want to take some piece of geography. You’d want to have close air support, artillery being directed toward enemy positions, etc. and it seems that this is just not happening. When the United States invaded Iraq, according to Wikipedia it was with 177,000 with 45,000 from the United Kingdom [1]. And this was for a country that was all but inept against American forces, and a local population that certainly didn’t care for Saddam. You could also probably draw up comparisons equipment-wise with the US and Russia now, except give the Iraqis missiles used in war in 2022, take away combined arms, and instead of having an at least somewhat welcoming population you have one that’s armed to the teeth and hates you and is getting fed intel on your every position. Russia assumed they’d be able to decapitate the country before anyone knew what to do, but then that didn’t happen, and now they don’t have enough troops without conscripting Russians and sending them to Ukraine. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq?wprov=sfti1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq?wprov=sf...

gvb 5y ago

Probably somewhat more than half are for support. The support troops are also at risk, especially the ones driving trucks on the roads in the north. They are valuable (especially tanker trucks) soft targets on a very long supply line and are constrained to traveling on roads. The Russian army is made up of Battalion Tactical Groups[1]. They have ~170 per Wikipedia, ~160 per [3]. They staged ~120 for the attack on Ukraine[2], all of which are now committed to battle (no reserves left). Per Wikipedia, a BTG is 600-800 combat troops (probably 800 when in full strength, probably closer to 700 in actual strength because 100% strength is impossible). This would imply ~80,000-90,000 combat troops. Ukraine claims that they have rendered 31 BTGs "combat ineffective" or have been destroyed[4] - ~30% of the Russian force in Ukraine. If I were a Russian general responsible for defending the Russian homeland, I would be sweating really hard over the BTG math... 160 - 120 = 40 BTG (actually less since several BTG are deployed to Syria, Georgia, etc.) to defend all of Russia. No wonder Xi Jinping is grinning like a shark in the pictures with Putin. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battalion_tactical_group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battalion_tactical_group [2] https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1011404/putin-has-committed-75-percent-of-russias-total-military-to-the-ukraine https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1011404/putin-has-co... [3] https://pledgetimes.com/ukraine-russian-commanders-received-orders-to-attack/ https://pledgetimes.com/ukraine-russian-commanders-received-... [4] https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1502403764787032070?s=20&t=D3R9QKgSbZp3T0T1Xdn_iw https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1502403764787032070...