4 ms·
I'm not particularly impressed with the quality of the article. The first question that comes to my mind that the article doesn't address is, how many geniuses
by mcguire 5y ago
I'm not particularly impressed with the quality of the article. The first question that comes to my mind that the article doesn't address is, how many geniuses did humanity miss because education was very, very limited. Second thought: history shows that the vast majority of aristocratically tutored students were very much not geniuses; this article is full of cherry-picking.
Third, there's the "Where's Todays Beethoven" chart, "Below, we can see the number of acclaimed scientists (in blue) and artists (in red), divided by the effective population (total human population with the education and access to contribute to these fields)."
Note: "with the education and access to contribute to these fields". If you increase the denominator by many orders of magnitude, no matter what the numerator is the result will probably go down.
"Tutoring, one-on-one instruction, dramatically improves student’s abilities and scores. In education research this effect is sometimes called “Bloom’s 2-sigma problem” because in the 1980s the researcher Benjamin Bloom found that tutored students '. . performed two standard deviations better than students who learn via conventional instructional methods—that is, "the average tutored student was above 98% of the students in the control class.”'"
The 2-sigma problem points to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloom%27s_2_sigma_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloom%27s_2_sigma_problem which has,
"Bloom found that the average student tutored one-to-one using mastery learning techniques performed two standard deviations better than students who learn via conventional instructional methods—that is, "the average tutored student was above 98% of the students in the control class"."
The "mastery learning" method "is an instructional strategy and educational philosophy, first formally proposed by Benjamin Bloom in 1968." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mastery_learning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mastery_learning), so there's that. (I'm a cynic; "my way produces much better results" with no further data tends to inspire distrust.)
"Consider the easy nature by which Darwin, at the age of only 16 and already in university,..."
And what proportion of university students were younger than 17 in the 1820s?
"Indeed, it’s remarkable how common aristocratic tutors were. Essentially universal."
One might suspect that where and when there is no more modern educational system that tutors would, in fact, be the only way to get any education.
One further note: the US pays roughly $15,000 per student per year as it is. Are you willing to work a full-time job for less than $30,000 per year? How's your Greek and Latin? Math? Science? Literature? (Assumptions: 2 half-time students per tutor. Some overhead will be necessary for the tutors.)
- adamisom 5y agoA two-sigma effect is mind blowing. You can say that makes it more suspect but the magnitude of the claim must be emphasized, that’s just so frickin high of an effect size. (Personally I assume the claim is at least mostly true: how could full-time, good tutoring not be incredibly better?)
- ghaff 5y agoOne does have to deal with the social aspects--not that all scoial aspect of secondary school are positive. But it seems obvious that 1:1 tutoring is generally positive beyond the cost. Certainly I got a lot out of independent study classes in grad school (and to a lesser degree undergrad).
- djur 5y agoI was interested by the "Where's Beethoven" graph, and went to read the original article (which is better, and doesn't actually agree with the idea that it's measuring a decline of genius). I'm kind of astonished that neither article considers the possibility that the effect they're seeing is that opportunity for acclaim doesn't scale with population. The absolute population has more than quadrupled since 1901. If I understand the data being used here, the "effective population" has increased over 100 fold in that time period. Yet the number of people receiving Nobel Prizes in any given field each year hasn't appreciably increased. And we would likely perceive the Nobel as less prestigious if they awarded 4 times as many a year -- certainly if they awarded 100 times as many. The same can be said of awards in art, music, and other fields. Awards are obviously not the only way of measuring prestige. But the same could be said of coverage in prestigious journals, or by renowned critics. Nobody would reasonably expect there to be 100 times as many top-tier literary journals in 2021 as in 1901. It almost seems like a contradiction in terms, doesn't it? I think a limiting factor here is that acclaim is a matter of mass agreement. A single person can only watch so many films, listen to so many songs, read about so many scientific accomplishments in a day. A film critic in 2021 is probably not watching that many more movies a week than their counterpart in 1960. And it's not like movies are load-balanced between critics.
- deleted 5y ago