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A recession may be all right. Americans have a gigantic amount saved up and so long as it’s mild enough it’ll probably strengthen the dollar.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> Americans have a gigantic amount saved up The median household savings is about $5k. Sure, the mean is a lot higher, but that gets thrown off by a few really rich people with enormous savings.
qbasic_forever 5y ago
Over half of America can't cover a surprise $1000 expense: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/56percent-of-americans-cant-cover-a-1000-emergency-expense-with-savings.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/56percent-of-americans-cant-... You are not looking at the reality of the situation if you think the average American has a "gigantic amount saved up". The average American is working paycheck to paycheck and is lucky to have a couple hundred bucks for a rainy day or unexpected car repair.
- notch656a 5y ago
  You've been played by a study designed to manipulate the view of American wealth. The median household has a gigantic amount of wealth, over $100k worth. Not having $1k in a checking account doesn't mean you can't afford $1k or even a $10k expense.
  - qbasic_forever 5y ago
    Sure if you define 'household' as home owners, of course their assets are well above $100k because of the hyper inflated housing market in the country. I would _love_ to see how someone renting an apartment and working minimum wage with less than $1k in their checking account can get a $10k loan. What are they going to do, go to the check cashing place around the corner and walk out with 10 grand? (that's saracasm btw)
    - notch656a 5y ago
      >Sure if you define 'household' as home owners I don't. All households. Majority of households have > 100k wealth. Your claim is patently wrong, when taken against your citation which shows nearly everyone found _some_ way to pay the expense. Personally I would just pay with a credit card so I can let inflation shred away ~0.5% of the real cost, but I'd be tossed away with those who 'cant afford' it by your interpretation of the study. I usually keep less than $1k in fiat accounts and I could easily have tens of thousands tomorrow if I like, and my household is far poorer than the median household. It's called selling (or borrowing against) assets. The median household can do the same thing. Only an idiot holds fiat in a savings account when inflation is raging.
      - qbasic_forever 5y ago
        I'm really trying to understand how you can agree that 56% of people can't find $1k, and yet over 50% of people have $100k in assets. I don't think we're looking at the same ~50% of people here...
        notch656a 5y ago
        I'm skeptical but willing to believe 56% of people can't find $1k on the spot in fiat cash because of the structure of their wealth. However statistically _most_ households have a hundred times over that in net wealth. Carefully reading the study, it becomes apparent the vast majority are able to alter the composition of their wealth or future spending to accommodate the expense. 59% were going to pay outright (if you add in the 15% that said they would pay and cut their budget), and if you add in people like me that would let it sit on credit to let some real value inflate away, it goes up to 79% who would pay it outright either by debiting from their fiat stockpiles or credit card. Only 4% actually needed to take out a personal loan, and only 10% would resort to family. Factor in that probably 14% of adults are 25 or younger or in school, and it starts to become apparent that the overwhelming majority of adults can afford a $1k expense.
        nickjj 5y ago
Sohcahtoa82 5y ago
You are living in a bubble. This may be true for you and the people you associate with, but for the majority of Americans, it's not true in the slightest.
- notch656a 5y ago
  Median household wealth is over $100k. Not only is it true far more than the slightest, it's true of the majority of American households.
  - nly 5y ago
    This _includes_ property. The following source does indeed show a 50th percentile (median) household wealth of $100K, but if you read the damn thing it shows the median contribution from property is $120K, which presumably means, if you were to exclude property owners, the average would be MUCH closer to 0. It also shows that 30% is contributed overall from property and another 30% from retirement accounts... Which can't be accessed until late in life and don't help you cover unexpected expenses. Link: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/demo/p70br-170.pdf https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publicatio... > The assets with the highest median values are primary home equity and rental property equity. The median value for home equity and the median equity in rental prop- erties, which are not statistically different from each other, were $118,000 and $120,000, respec- tively
    - thehappypm 5y ago
      What’s the problem with including property? Ever heard of a cash-out refinance?
- thehappypm 5y ago
  I disagree. We’re burned out because in the last 14 years we’ve seen two gigantic recessions. They’re not always catastrophes!

dragonwriter 5y ago

> Americans have a gigantic amount saved up The median household savings is about $5k. Sure, the mean is a lot higher, but that gets thrown off by a few really rich people with enormous savings.

qbasic_forever 5y ago

Over half of America can't cover a surprise $1000 expense: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/56percent-of-americans-cant-cover-a-1000-emergency-expense-with-savings.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/56percent-of-americans-cant-... You are not looking at the reality of the situation if you think the average American has a "gigantic amount saved up". The average American is working paycheck to paycheck and is lucky to have a couple hundred bucks for a rainy day or unexpected car repair.

notch656a 5y ago
You've been played by a study designed to manipulate the view of American wealth. The median household has a gigantic amount of wealth, over $100k worth. Not having $1k in a checking account doesn't mean you can't afford $1k or even a $10k expense.
- qbasic_forever 5y ago
  Sure if you define 'household' as home owners, of course their assets are well above $100k because of the hyper inflated housing market in the country. I would _love_ to see how someone renting an apartment and working minimum wage with less than $1k in their checking account can get a $10k loan. What are they going to do, go to the check cashing place around the corner and walk out with 10 grand? (that's saracasm btw)
  - notch656a 5y ago
    >Sure if you define 'household' as home owners I don't. All households. Majority of households have > 100k wealth. Your claim is patently wrong, when taken against your citation which shows nearly everyone found _some_ way to pay the expense. Personally I would just pay with a credit card so I can let inflation shred away ~0.5% of the real cost, but I'd be tossed away with those who 'cant afford' it by your interpretation of the study. I usually keep less than $1k in fiat accounts and I could easily have tens of thousands tomorrow if I like, and my household is far poorer than the median household. It's called selling (or borrowing against) assets. The median household can do the same thing. Only an idiot holds fiat in a savings account when inflation is raging.
    - qbasic_forever 5y ago
      I'm really trying to understand how you can agree that 56% of people can't find $1k, and yet over 50% of people have $100k in assets. I don't think we're looking at the same ~50% of people here...
      - notch656a 5y ago
        I'm skeptical but willing to believe 56% of people can't find $1k on the spot in fiat cash because of the structure of their wealth. However statistically _most_ households have a hundred times over that in net wealth. Carefully reading the study, it becomes apparent the vast majority are able to alter the composition of their wealth or future spending to accommodate the expense. 59% were going to pay outright (if you add in the 15% that said they would pay and cut their budget), and if you add in people like me that would let it sit on credit to let some real value inflate away, it goes up to 79% who would pay it outright either by debiting from their fiat stockpiles or credit card. Only 4% actually needed to take out a personal loan, and only 10% would resort to family. Factor in that probably 14% of adults are 25 or younger or in school, and it starts to become apparent that the overwhelming majority of adults can afford a $1k expense.
        nickjj 5y ago

Sohcahtoa82 5y ago

You are living in a bubble. This may be true for you and the people you associate with, but for the majority of Americans, it's not true in the slightest.

notch656a 5y ago
Median household wealth is over $100k. Not only is it true far more than the slightest, it's true of the majority of American households.
- nly 5y ago
  This _includes_ property. The following source does indeed show a 50th percentile (median) household wealth of $100K, but if you read the damn thing it shows the median contribution from property is $120K, which presumably means, if you were to exclude property owners, the average would be MUCH closer to 0. It also shows that 30% is contributed overall from property and another 30% from retirement accounts... Which can't be accessed until late in life and don't help you cover unexpected expenses. Link: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/demo/p70br-170.pdf https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publicatio... > The assets with the highest median values are primary home equity and rental property equity. The median value for home equity and the median equity in rental prop- erties, which are not statistically different from each other, were $118,000 and $120,000, respec- tively
  - thehappypm 5y ago
    What’s the problem with including property? Ever heard of a cash-out refinance?
thehappypm 5y ago
I disagree. We’re burned out because in the last 14 years we’ve seen two gigantic recessions. They’re not always catastrophes!