4 ms·

Obviously when 2029 comes, there are still going to be some 18 year olds who started smoking when they were 17 (despite the existing rules trying to stop that),

Obviously when 2029 comes, there are still going to be some 18 year olds who started smoking when they were 17 (despite the existing rules trying to stop that), but the new law would mean that those early smokers will never reach an age where their habit becomes legal. I don't know how rationally a 17 year old thinks about the relative difficulty of obtaining cigarettes for just a year until they turn 18, compared to having to obtain them illegally for the rest of their life, but with each passing year, the gap between {current average age of first cigarette} and {average age of smoker} will increase, making young smokers look more and more conspicuous.

waste_monk 5y ago
After enough of the older crowd die (which the act of smoking inherently accelerates, so it probably won't take too long, just a few decades) there would not be enough smokers left for most places to profitably stock tobacco products. Dedicated tobacconists would probably collapse, larger stores in high-population areas may still stock tobacco products, but for the most part I would envisage smokers would be driven to specialist stores with online ordering and firm age verification. Additionally, it would be far easier to monitor and audit the limited number of places that do stock tobacco ("secret shopper" stings and similar) to make sure they aren't being lax in their age verification. Essentially, by making it impossible for youths simply pay someone a few bucks + the cost of the cigarettes to purchase them, the effort barrier could be made high enough as to prevent new smokers due to lack of easy availability.
- Ekaros 5y ago
  I think it only leads to smuggling. This is already seen with snuff in Finland. Which is illegal to sell here, but legal to sell in Sweden. So some people will just go to other country and then bring back bunch and sell it for some profit. State losing taxes and so on... Occasionally someone gets prosecuted.
kazinator 5y ago
> early smokers will never reach an age where their habit becomes legal That is obvious; the expression DOB > 2010 is constant for any given individual. It doesn't get any falser with time.

waste_monk 5y ago

After enough of the older crowd die (which the act of smoking inherently accelerates, so it probably won't take too long, just a few decades) there would not be enough smokers left for most places to profitably stock tobacco products. Dedicated tobacconists would probably collapse, larger stores in high-population areas may still stock tobacco products, but for the most part I would envisage smokers would be driven to specialist stores with online ordering and firm age verification. Additionally, it would be far easier to monitor and audit the limited number of places that do stock tobacco ("secret shopper" stings and similar) to make sure they aren't being lax in their age verification. Essentially, by making it impossible for youths simply pay someone a few bucks + the cost of the cigarettes to purchase them, the effort barrier could be made high enough as to prevent new smokers due to lack of easy availability.

Ekaros 5y ago
I think it only leads to smuggling. This is already seen with snuff in Finland. Which is illegal to sell here, but legal to sell in Sweden. So some people will just go to other country and then bring back bunch and sell it for some profit. State losing taxes and so on... Occasionally someone gets prosecuted.

kazinator 5y ago

> early smokers will never reach an age where their habit becomes legal That is obvious; the expression DOB > 2010 is constant for any given individual. It doesn't get any falser with time.