If I minted a well-balanced coin and flipped it with a promise to destroy it afterwards, it would not at all be misleading to characterize it as having a 50/50

If I minted a well-balanced coin and flipped it with a promise to destroy it afterwards, it would not at all be misleading to characterize it as having a 50/50 chance of coming up heads. Even in the frequentist interpretation of probability, the odds before a one-time event have a meaning: they're the fraction of similar events that would resolve in a certain way if it was to be repeated. >remember 538’s confidence that Hillary would win the election in 2016 Yeah, 538 was confident. It wasn't misleading for them to announce a high probability, unless you thought 538's confidence was the same thing as The Probability.